Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on D6/Monday. The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability. Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear vector. Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and limit predictability. Read more

MD 1172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050755Z - 050930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts embedded within a broader swath of primarily strong gusts may persist through dawn as an MCS moves southeastward across parts of east Texas. DISCUSSION...An increasingly ragged QLCS has been progressing steadily southeast across the Red River and northeast TX. Sub-severe but strong gusts have been common along the outflow. A couple marginally severe gusts of 57 and 60 mph have been measured during the past hour or so with multiple deeper convective cores on the western arc of the MCS across far south-central OK into north-central TX. This process of regenerative convection on the backside of the MCS/post-outflow may persist owing to the plumes of large buoyancy over central TX and steep mid-level lapse rates to the west-northwest. These cells may continue to produce strong to localized severe gusts in a sporadic fashion, before weakening as they shift deeper into the remnant stratiform from the leading line. ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34179708 33939680 33259600 33179557 33309493 33489447 33229404 32699401 32339400 31689452 31359553 31449603 31629683 32859750 33259755 33899765 34089767 34179708 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward from coastal NC into central GA and westward back into northeast TX. A few thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front over coastal NC and the Outer Banks, as well as central and eastern Gulf Coast into the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear should keep the severe potential low. Farther west across the southern Plains, the front will become increasingly diffuse, with it likely returning northward as a warm front during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns back across the southern and central High Plains. Strong mixing is anticipated across much of the southern High Plains, with less mixing along the warm front into the central High Plains. As a result, 60s dewpoints are likely into eastern CO/western KS in near the lee trough. Thunderstorm development appears possible as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting the potential for organized storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The lack of larger scale forcing suggests isolated coverage, but there is some chance that a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the ridge, helping to increase coverage. Greater storm coverage would increase the likelihood of upscale growth and the development of a convective line. However, predictability of that evolution is currently low. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more