Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas Coastal Plain to the ArkLaMiss. ...Synopsis... A large mid-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today with a downstream trough amplifying across the Upper Midwest. A cold front will extend from a surface low in southern Manitoba across the western Great Lakes and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning and move east across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through the day. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest as strong height falls associated with the amplifying mid-level trough overspread the region. Cooling temperatures aloft and at least some low-level moisture recovery should sufficiently destabilize the region for strong updrafts. Strong unidirectional westerly flow will increase from 30 knots at 700mb to 60 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots at 300mb. This wind profile will support organized updrafts with the potential for large hail and particularly wind, given the steep low-level lapse rates and the strong unidirectional flow. ...East Texas to the ArkLaMiss... The MCS currently near the Red River at 06Z is expected to continue through the early morning hours and exist from east Texas to northern Louisiana by 12Z. Some isolated severe wind gusts are possible through the morning hours given the very moist airmass in place and the well established cold pool associated with the MCS. However, expect it to continue to weaken through the morning as it moves toward increasingly warm 700mb temperatures and weakening shear with the MCS eventually moving into the Gulf of Mexico near mid-day. The severe threat may continue into the afternoon across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi where at least some heating may result in destabilization. However, relatively weak shear should limit a greater potential or the threat for more than isolated damaging wind gusts. ...Southern Edwards Plateau into portions of Deep South Texas... An outflow boundary from the overnight MCS across eastern Texas will likely stall somewhere near central Texas in a region where a very moist airmass and extreme instability will be present. Overall height rises will not be favorable for thunderstorm development. However, the extension of a mid-level (likely convectively modified) shortwave trough is expected to move southeast across central/eastern Texas during the afternoon. This trough may provide enough support, when combined with low-level convergence along any remnant outflow boundary, for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. Very weak flow (less than 20 knots) in the vertical wind profile, should mitigate more than isolated damaging wind/large hail threat with this activity. ...Ohio Valley/Eastern Great Lakes... A very moist airmass across the lower-Ohio River valley will advect north through the day today with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints expected ahead of the cold front from the Ohio River to eastern Michigan by late morning. Only minimal heating will be required for convective initiation today. This lack of an EML or greater capping will limit the overall threat with scattered thunderstorm development expected along and ahead of the cold front by midday. Greater forcing along the cold front may be needed for stronger storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Mid-Atlantic... Widespread cloud cover is expected across northern Virginia and the DelMarVa as a moist airmass advects into the region. Any minimal heating which occurs will be sufficient for scattered storm development during the afternoon. Very weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) should limit more robust updraft development. However, if any stronger/ more sustained storms can develop, there will be some threat for isolated damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado as a small, but favorably curved, low-level hodograph will be present across this region. ...Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop amid weak height falls and moderate instability across New Hampshire and southern/central Maine this afternoon. Straight hodographs and strengthening northwesterly flow above 500mb may be sufficient for some storm organization including transient supercell structures capable of large hail. ..Bentley/Lyons.. 06/05/2024 Read more

WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CQB TO 5 NW GMJ TO 40 NNE JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171. ..GRAMS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC097-119-145-050640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-037-041-061-063-069-077-079-085- 091-095-097-099-101-107-111-121-123-127-135-145-050640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH WAGONER Read more

WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PNC TO 15 NNW TUL TO 35 WSW JLN TO 55 SSE OJC. ..HART..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC021-037-050540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC011-097-119-145-217-050540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON VERNON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-037-041-061-063-069-077-079- 085-091-095-097-099-101-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-127-131-135- 143-145-050540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN Read more

WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FSI TO 25 NNW ADM TO 20 E OKC TO 20 SSE END TO 20 SSE PNC. ..HART..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC031-033-049-067-081-083-103-109-119-125-133-137-050540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JEFFERSON LINCOLN LOGAN NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more