Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western third of the CONUS is expected to keep surface winds weak as flow aloft is moved northward. Beneath the ridge, the air mass over parts of the Desert Southwest should be quite hot, though a backdoor front is expected to move westward over parts of NM. As moisture increases higher RH recoveries and the potential for isolated thunderstorms should increase over the southern Rockies/High Plains. A few high-based storms may produce sporadic dry lightning, though the overlap with the most receptive fuels is expected to be poor. The increasing moisture along with much weaker winds should limit the potential for dry and breezy conditions over much of the Desert Southwest. Isolated pockets of 10-15 mph surface winds and RH below 15% are possible over the higher terrain in western NM and eastern AZ but, coverage and duration of any elevated fire-weather conditions appears limited. ..Lyons.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ADM TO 40 N PRX TO 20 NW FYV. ..GRAMS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-019-023-069-079-085-095-099-050740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW JOHNSTON LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ADM TO 40 N PRX TO 20 NW FYV. ..GRAMS..06/05/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC013-019-023-069-079-085-095-099-050740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW JOHNSTON LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 393 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 050215Z - 050800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 915 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters and lines of thunderstorms will track east-southeastward across the watch area through the overnight hours, posing a risk of damaging winds gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Chanute KS to 60 miles south of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 392... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1171 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...393... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS...FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Oklahoma...North Texas...Far Western Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392...393... Valid 050428Z - 050630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392, 393 continues. SUMMARY...A linear MCS, associated with strong wind gusts, will move across southern and eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, and into far north Texas and far western Arkansas later tonight. Although intensity with the line has decreased, there still remains a possibility that the line could re-generate during the overnight period. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong thunderstorms over southern and east-central Oklahoma. This line is associated with a linear MCS that is located near the northern edge of a strongly unstable airmass. Immediately to the south of the MCS, MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings overnight within this airmass near the Red River and in eastern Oklahoma have substantial directional shear in the lowest 3 km, which combined with the strong instability, suggests the line could be associated with a few marginally severe wind gusts. It still remains possible the line could re-generate as it moves southeastward along the instability gradient. ..Broyles.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34069848 33499726 33299578 33459464 33769422 34499415 35529423 36039486 36109550 35879602 35609642 35249669 34919693 34859789 34629856 34069848 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential. ...Florida Peninsula... Sea-breeze convergence is forecast to result in thunderstorms across central and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Moderate buoyancy, supported in part by relatively cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -8 to -9 deg C at 500 mb), could support a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Highest severe coverage is anticipated from the east-central into southeast FL Peninsula. ..Mosier.. 06/05/2024 Read more