Severe Storms

MD 1176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...much of central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052002Z - 052200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by locally strong to severe surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Mid-level cooling and lift within the exit region of a seasonably strong (70-90 kt around 500 mb) jet digging across the northern Great Plains is contributing to steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates spreading east-southeast of the Red River Valley through much of northern and central Minnesota. Beneath this regime, a deepening mixed boundary layer remains sufficiently moist to support CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, with an increase in thunderstorm development ongoing in the wake of preceding thunderstorm activity overspreading the Minnesota Arrowhead through northwestern Wisconsin vicinity. As thunderstorms continue to slowly increase in number and intensify in the peak afternoon heating, downward mixing of stronger momentum to the surface will contribute to increasing potential for strong to widely scattered severe gusts, particularly with storms overspreading central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin through 22-00Z. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 47189448 46009091 44799147 44679366 45179535 46159662 47189448 Read more

MD 1175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051925Z - 052130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with a risk of isolated gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado or two. Limited areal coverage and brief nature of risk suggests a watch will not be needed. DISCUSSION...A band of scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms is spreading northeastward across eastern VA into eastern MD. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime heating is leading to destabilization of a rather moist air mass across central VA, where MLCAPE values have risen into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Model guidance suggests the approach of a weak mid-level shortwave trough, with an accompanied increase in low-level winds. This will result in some strengthening of shear profiles and a greater chance of a few more organized or weak supercellular storms in the coming hours. Locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely concern, but a brief tornado or two are also possible through the afternoon. Given the limited nature of the threat, a ww is not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37327936 37977927 38657874 39097812 38937733 38577696 37727685 36977749 36747831 36907913 37327936 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

MD 1174 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...Much of Maine and southern New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051654Z - 051900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of ME and southern NH. A few strong/severe storms are possible with gusty winds and hail. A WW is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing cu/tcu across western ME and southern NH. This area has warmed into the 70s and lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid 60s yielding SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and sufficiently strong northwesterly flow aloft will aid in the development of a few organized cells this afternoon capable of locally gusty winds. Cold temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates may also encourage the risk of hail in the strongest cells. It appears that the overall coverage of strong/severe storms will be limited. Thus, a WW is not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... LAT...LON 42807103 43037170 43717163 44677089 45906979 46296853 46016746 45146724 44346776 43996855 43127028 42807103 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more