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1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE......
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph
damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible
over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the
stronger thunderstorms.
...20z Update...
An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into
the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of
convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow
moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further
southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward
extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions
largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the
Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow
with additional storm development into the evening is a likely
outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest
of Amarillo as of 1950z.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across
the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea
breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus
developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development
is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US
from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is
ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough.
Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue
in this region into the evening.
..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level
vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a
mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will
move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and
pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite
imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying
heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels
(upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud
cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some
enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more
recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased
from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will
preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and
spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of
multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay
vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph
gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more
isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over
NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest
enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont
into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less
confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities
at this time.
...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach
slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a
positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf
Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East
Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of
the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9
deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from
the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at
500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated
large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly
enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in
substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated
wind damage (55-65 mph gusts).
...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening...
A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern
OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak
lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level
flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of
the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level
moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon
(MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse
rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from
northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently
spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V
profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will
favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable
of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated
large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter).
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE......
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph
damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible
over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the
stronger thunderstorms.
...20z Update...
An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into
the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of
convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow
moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further
southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward
extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions
largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the
Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow
with additional storm development into the evening is a likely
outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest
of Amarillo as of 1950z.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across
the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea
breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus
developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development
is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US
from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is
ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough.
Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue
in this region into the evening.
..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level
vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a
mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will
move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and
pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite
imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying
heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels
(upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud
cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some
enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more
recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased
from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will
preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and
spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of
multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay
vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph
gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more
isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over
NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest
enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont
into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less
confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities
at this time.
...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach
slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a
positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf
Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East
Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of
the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9
deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from
the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at
500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated
large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly
enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in
substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated
wind damage (55-65 mph gusts).
...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening...
A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern
OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak
lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level
flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of
the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level
moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon
(MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse
rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from
northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently
spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V
profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will
favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable
of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated
large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter).
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE......
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph
damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible
over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the
stronger thunderstorms.
...20z Update...
An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into
the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of
convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow
moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further
southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward
extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions
largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the
Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow
with additional storm development into the evening is a likely
outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest
of Amarillo as of 1950z.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across
the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea
breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus
developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development
is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US
from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is
ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough.
Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue
in this region into the evening.
..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level
vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a
mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will
move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and
pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite
imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying
heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels
(upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud
cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some
enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more
recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased
from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will
preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and
spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of
multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay
vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph
gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more
isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over
NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest
enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont
into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less
confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities
at this time.
...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach
slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a
positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf
Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East
Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of
the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9
deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from
the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at
500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated
large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly
enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in
substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated
wind damage (55-65 mph gusts).
...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening...
A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern
OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak
lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level
flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of
the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level
moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon
(MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse
rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from
northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently
spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V
profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will
favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable
of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated
large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter).
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE......
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph
damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible
over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in
diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the
stronger thunderstorms.
...20z Update...
An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into
the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of
convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow
moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further
southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward
extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions
largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the
Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow
with additional storm development into the evening is a likely
outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest
of Amarillo as of 1950z.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across
the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea
breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus
developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development
is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US
from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is
ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough.
Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue
in this region into the evening.
..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level
vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a
mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will
move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and
pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite
imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying
heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels
(upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud
cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some
enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more
recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased
from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will
preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and
spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of
multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay
vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph
gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more
isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over
NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest
enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont
into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less
confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities
at this time.
...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach
slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a
positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf
Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East
Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of
the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9
deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from
the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at
500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated
large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly
enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in
substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated
wind damage (55-65 mph gusts).
...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening...
A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern
OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak
lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level
flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of
the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level
moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon
(MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse
rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from
northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently
spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V
profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will
favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable
of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated
large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter).
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to
include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central
and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area.
Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph
are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a
lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of
relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this
area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence
to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and
around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very
high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable
rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest.
Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly
broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded
perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area
was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation
amounts should keep dry strikes limited there.
..Barnes.. 06/06/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as
several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the
Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow
in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern
half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US.
...Desert Southwest...
As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced
mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move
over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly
strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase
of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great
Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in
place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible.
Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM.
Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a
weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms.
PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with
limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be
higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from
the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential
appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into
northwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061853Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm
development will become increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT.
This may include one or two developing supercell structures, with
large hail and potentially damaging surface gusts the primary
potential severe hazards. It is not certain when or if a watch will
be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Beneath fairly prominent mid/upper ridging (which
encompasses much of the Great Basin and Southwest into southern
Great Plains), and lingering elevated mixed-layer air to the east of
the southern Rockies, a remnant surface front is becoming the focus
for strengthening differential surface heating across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma. Enhanced
low-level convergence along this zone is maintaining sufficient
moisture within a deepening mixed boundary layer to support CAPE
increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg.
Perhaps aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection,
deepening high-based convective development is ongoing. With
additional insolation and the approach of convective temperatures,
isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development
appears increasingly probable through 21-23Z.
West-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow is weak (around 10-15 kt),
but veering of winds with height might be contributing to shear
marginally sufficient to support short-lived supercell structures
with potential to produce severe hail and wind. This activity will
be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to propagate southward
and southwestward.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 36770102 36969965 36729776 35499903 35500061 35450108
35850173 36390162 36770102
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND...FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Virginia into
eastern Maryland...far southern New Jersey...Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061745Z - 061915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts
are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to
warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION...A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest
westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is
poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this
occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage
and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has
supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z
mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these
lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient
evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any
strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed
in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 36867951 38787778 39647685 39677577 39507505 39037491
38247531 37327600 36807673 36647817 36867951
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 6 17:48:02 UTC 2024.
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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