SPC Jun 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC Jun 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC Jun 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC Jun 6, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 2 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z A few minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast to include a small Elevated area across the High Plains of east central and southeastern NM, and to extend a portion of the IsoDryT area. Sustained, drying south-southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph are expected to develop across southeast NM Friday afternoon, as a lee surface trough deepens over the OK/TX Panhandles. A trend of relatively stronger mid-level flow has also been noted over this area (higher momentum transfer), which has led to enough confidence to introduce elevated conditions. Several forecast soundings in and around the IsoDryT area continue to indicate the potential for very high cloud bases Friday afternoon, with only localized appreciable rainfall anticipated over the receptive fuels of the Southwest. Isolated dry lightning strikes appear more likely across a slightly broader area atop a mid-to-upper level ridge, with several embedded perturbations traversing the southern Rockies. Another IsoDryT area was considered for southern NV, but relatively higher precipitation amounts should keep dry strikes limited there. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging over the Southwestern US will weaken slightly as several embedded perturbations crest the ridge and move into the Southwest and southern Rockies Friday. To the east, northwest flow in the wake of a departing trough will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions and a few dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southwestern US. ...Desert Southwest... As the upper ridge weakens and shifts to the east, enhanced mid-level flow associated with several weak perturbations will move over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. While not overly strong, 35-40 kt of mid-level flow will likely support some increase of the surface winds to 15-20 mph over parts of the southern Great Basin and northern AZ. Dry and warm surface conditions will be in place with RH below 15% atop dry fuels. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain of eastern AZ into much of NM. Several days of weak upslope flow and low-level moistening behind a weakening cold front should be sufficient to support thunderstorms. PWATS values of 0.75 inches will continue to favor drier storms with limited wetting rainfall. Storm coverage is also expected to be higher than previous days given the stronger forcing for ascent from the passing shortwave troughs. Thus, lightning ignition potential appears high enough to warrant an IsoDryT area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1182

1 year 2 months ago
MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE VICINITY INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061853Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT. This may include one or two developing supercell structures, with large hail and potentially damaging surface gusts the primary potential severe hazards. It is not certain when or if a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Beneath fairly prominent mid/upper ridging (which encompasses much of the Great Basin and Southwest into southern Great Plains), and lingering elevated mixed-layer air to the east of the southern Rockies, a remnant surface front is becoming the focus for strengthening differential surface heating across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma. Enhanced low-level convergence along this zone is maintaining sufficient moisture within a deepening mixed boundary layer to support CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. Perhaps aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection, deepening high-based convective development is ongoing. With additional insolation and the approach of convective temperatures, isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 21-23Z. West-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow is weak (around 10-15 kt), but veering of winds with height might be contributing to shear marginally sufficient to support short-lived supercell structures with potential to produce severe hail and wind. This activity will be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to propagate southward and southwestward. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36770102 36969965 36729776 35499903 35500061 35450108 35850173 36390162 36770102 Read more

SPC MD 1181

1 year 2 months ago
MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND...FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland...far southern New Jersey...Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061745Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon, as thunderstorms become more widespread. 50-65 mph gusts are the main threat, and are expected to become abundant enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A small mid-level impulse embedded within modest westerlies aloft is traversing the central Appalachians, and is poised to approach the Atlantic Coastline this afternoon. As this occurs, thunderstorms should continue to increase in both coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Strong surface heating has supported low-level lapse rates to reach 7 C/km (per 17Z mesoanalysis), and additional heating should further boost these lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km. This will promote efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent 50-65 mph gust potential with any strong storm that can become sustained. A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours to address the damaging gust threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36867951 38787778 39647685 39677577 39507505 39037491 38247531 37327600 36807673 36647817 36867951 Read more
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