Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024 Read more