Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z By this weekend, the large-scale pattern will begin to alter slowly. An upper trough will amplify a bit over the northeastern CONUS, while the upper ridge previously extending into the Pacific northwest shifts eastward over more of the Rockies. Relatively weak flow aloft will continue within this ridge axis, limiting overall meteorological fire spread conditions across the more receptive fuels of the Southwest. The exception may be D3/Saturday over a small portion of eastern AZ near the Mogollon Rim and Gila Mountains, and far southern/southwestern NM. This is where localized sustained wind speeds near 20 mph may overlap critical RH. Due to the brevity of the wind speeds and lower momentum transfer from aloft, however, critical probabilities do not appear warranted. Elevated areas may need to be introduced for these locations in later forecasts. Mid-level perturbations rotating around the ridge axis over the southern Rockies could also aid in enough ascent for IsoDryT over southern CO and central NM D3/Saturday, where very high cloud bases/inverted V profiles are again expected. The same may also accompany a mid-level shortwave trough nearing central NV. Early next week a mid to upper closed low is still expected to be located off the southern CA coastline, and will meander there for a few days. The mid-level height gradient associated with this low will increase along and west of the Rockies toward the middle and end of the week. Extended ensembles continue to agree with this scenario unfolding. Therefore, one would expect an increase in surface flow across the Intermountain West, Great Basin, and Southwest as this feature moves onshore D7/Wednesday-D8/Thursday. However, confidence is too low to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 6 21:55:16 UTC 2024.

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 ..DEAN..06/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-062240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-062240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185 ..DEAN..06/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-062240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-062240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES Read more

WW 394 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 061820Z - 070100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Southern half of New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern and Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through the afternoon into several broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely push east of the Atlantic Seaboard by mid to late evening with the severe risk diminishing from west to east across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northeast of Trenton NJ to 35 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1185 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland...Delaware...and far southern New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394... Valid 062018Z - 062145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394. Damaging gusts remain the primary threat, particularly over portions of southeastern Virginia, where a more organized thunderstorm cluster exists. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in both coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours, especially in southeastern VA, where an organized cluster of thunderstorms has formed. At least one damaging gust report has been received in the past half hour, and more damaging gusts may occur through the remainder of the afternoon. At the moment, the southeastern VA thunderstorm cluster poses the greatest threat for damaging gusts. However, strong wind gusts are still possible in MD into DE and southern NJ, where a buoyant boundary layer currently resides. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 36607842 39027664 40087566 40087454 39977414 39627408 38757466 37877523 37117572 36767589 36567693 36607842 Read more

MD 1184 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into South Carolina and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062003Z - 062130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few 45-60 mph gusts may occur with the stronger storms that can materialize this afternoon. The severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are percolating in intensity, with increasing trends in coverage being gradual at best. Surface temperatures are reaching or exceeding 90 F in several locales, which has supported convective initiation thus far. 7.5-8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are supporting up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, which would favor 45-60 mph wind gusts with any of the stronger thunderstorms that can sustain themselves. However, 19Z mesoanalysis and 18Z RAP forecasting soundings show relatively weak tropospheric vertical wind profiles and accompanying shear. As such, mainly short-lived, pulse-cellular storms should be the dominant mode of convection, with damaging gusts likely to be limited in areal coverage and longevity, precluding a WW issuance at this time. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35218267 36278009 36467855 36437745 36057718 35397737 34697782 34037867 33707955 33698047 33638095 33848168 34068206 34278242 35218267 Read more

MD 1183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...interior central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061952Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increasingly widespread strong thunderstorm development appears likely across interior central Florida, including the Greater Orlando vicinity, through 6-7 PM EDT. Stronger storms may pose a risk for frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, marginally severe hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered thunderstorms is underway along the the inland advancing sea-breezes across the Florida Peninsula. This is occurring in the presence of weak (10-15 kt) west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Across north central portions of the peninsula, downward mixing of the westerly flow to the surface has contributed to the inland advance of the sea-breeze from the Gulf coast, while the sea-breeze off the Atlantic is being maintained closer to the Atlantic coast. Across the interior peninsula, temperatures have heated into the mid 90s to around 100F, contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. With some further inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze (and associated lower/mid 70s F dew points), CAPE may increase further and maximize along its leading edge near the interface with the stronger heating. It appears that increasing low-level convergence along the colliding sea-breezes may focus intensifying and increasingly widespread thunderstorm development along a corridor west of Daytona Beach through the Greater Orlando area and into the Avon Park/Sebring vicinities by 22-23Z. Initial stronger cells may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong downbursts, before gusty winds along consolidating outflows becomes more prominent. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28438190 29688147 28968096 27708083 27198105 26948109 26858124 27308191 28438190 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states due to 50-65 mph damaging gusts. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible over the eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and parts of western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...20z Update... An update was made to expand the Slight Risk further southwest into the Texas Panhandle. CAM signals are split on the evolution of convection this afternoon, with a few solutions showing outflow moving southward with additional thunderstorm development further southwest and others indicating more limited coverage with southward extent. Given deep layer flow will likely lead to storm motions largely southeastward off of the boundary located across the Oklahoma Panhandle, it is likely that a southward moving outflow with additional storm development into the evening is a likely outcome. Visible satellite shows cu development is ongoing northwest of Amarillo as of 1950z. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal across the Florida Peninsula to account for ongoing activity. The sea breeze circulation can be observed moving inland, with cumulus developing along this boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is likely through the afternoon with risk of damaging wind and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect across the eastern US from southern PA southward to Virginia. Thunderstorm activity is ongoing within this region along a cold front and surface trough. Potential for damaging wind with thunderstorm activity will continue in this region into the evening. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a mid-level vorticity maximum moving east along the NY/PA border ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will move into NY/PA by this evening. A surface cold front and pre-frontal lee trough will push east during the day and into the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon/evening. Visible-satellite imagery shows considerable mid- to high-level cloud cover delaying heating from northern VA into NY. However, very moist low levels (upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints) and breaks in the cloud cover will yield moderate buoyancy by early to mid afternoon. Some enhancement in 700-mb flow was noted on area WSR-88D VADs (more recently at KLWX (Sterling, VA) where westerly flow has increased from 35 to 45 kt in the 2-4 km layer. Scattered thunderstorms will preferentially develop on the aforementioned surface boundaries and spread east into the destabilizing airmass. Several bands of multicells are forecast from NC into the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay vicinity. It is here where slightly greater coverage of 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage are forecast. Farther north, more isolated strong to locally severe/damaging storms are expected over NY where less instability is forecast. Farther south, some modest enhancement in 850-700 mb flow will overspread the Carolina Piedmont into the coastal plain, but lower expected storm coverage and less confidence in storm intensity precludes higher severe probabilities at this time. ...Eastern half of the FL Peninsula this afternoon... Water-vapor imagery shows an upper low centered near Daytona Beach slowly migrating east into the adjacent Gulf Stream waters, as a positively tilted mid-level trough extends from the central Gulf Coast into the GA/SC vicinity. Model guidance indicates the East Coast sea breeze will preferentially focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. Strong heating underway over the interior part of the Peninsula will result in very steep 0-3 km lapse rates (around 9 deg C/km). Surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s away from the coast and dewpoints in the lower 70s will contribute to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.75 inch diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts). ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). Read more