Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

MD 1188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...north central into central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071754Z - 072030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development, including or two intensifying supercells, appears increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CDT. This activity will pose a risk for producing large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Within deepening lee surface troughing, continuing insolation and northward advection of low-level moisture on southerly low-level flow are contribute to rapid boundary-layer destabilization and weakening inhibition across the Nebraska Sandhills vicinity. This is occurring beneath broadly anticyclonic, but moderate to strong flow near the northeastern periphery of large-scale mid/upper ridging. However, forcing for ascent associated with weak perturbations progressing through this regime is in the process of spreading eastward across the Nebraska Panhandle. This lift is likely providing support for the ongoing high-based convective development approaching the Sandhills. As surface dew points continue to rise into and through the lower 60s, and temperatures warm into the mid 80s, forecast soundings suggest that convective temperatures will be approached. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening deep-layer lift, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection initially becoming focused to northwest and west of the Thedford/Ainsworth vicinities by 19-21Z. One or two rapidly developing and intensifying supercells appears possible, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg and strongly sheared deep-layer westerly mean flow increasing to around 30 kt. As the stronger storms mature, they will tend to propagate southeastward accompanied by increasing risk for large hail, and at least some potential for producing a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42440193 42970083 42229881 41339913 41520055 41890128 42440193 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Update... Very hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the Southwest and Great Basin Saturday. A small Elevated area has been introduced across portions of southwestern NM, where a tightening localized pressure gradient may result in at least an hour or two of critical sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph. The maximum wind speeds should remain a bit south and east of more fire prone areas. However, locations along and north of I-10 may still experience 15-20 mph wind speeds overlapping with receptive fuels and low teens to single-digit RH. In addition to the isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin mentioned in the previous discussion below, very localized dry strikes via orographic ascent will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains. However, anticipated coverage remains too sparse to warrant an IsoDryT area at this time. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge over the western CONUS will favor another day of warm/dry conditions across much of the Southwest into the southern Great Basin. Overall, a weak pressure gradient should limit sustained surface winds across the region, though breezy conditions in terrain-favored areas could still yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Additionally, sufficient midlevel moisture atop a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. However, fuels over this area are marginal -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more