Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

MD 1200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080638Z - 080815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms across southeast Kansas may produce isolated damaging wind gusts as it moves southeast this morning. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across eastern Kansas has become somewhat better organized in the past 30 minutes. The more outflow dominant appearance on 0.5 degree reflectivity from KTWX and KEAX has become better balanced and subsequently, echo tops have increased. This is likely related to the strengthening low-level jet (50 knots per INX VWP) across the region. A dry airmass across Missouri has triggered a quick demise of stronger storms that move out of Kansas. However, there remains a corridor of better moisture and buoyancy across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with modest moisture in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. This may support strong/occasionally severe wind gusts with the squall line as it moves southeast through the morning hours. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38119639 38219582 38389531 38489515 38499481 38329439 37969399 37139366 36439355 36059407 36049477 36189555 36649624 37249661 38119639 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more