Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

MD 1201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE...CO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS...SOUTHWEST NE...NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast WY...southern NE Panhandle...CO Front Range and eastern plains...southwest NE...northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 081751Z - 081945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from west of Cheyenne, WY to the I-70 foothills vicinity west of Denver during the 18-19 UTC (12-1 pm MDT) period. The risk for mainly large hail will be the most prominent severe hazard as the activity emerges from the higher terrain into the High Plains. As storms mature with increasing cold pool coverage and additional storm mergers occur, the threat for severe gusts will quickly increase and become the more widespread hazard as the storms move well east of Denver into eastern CO and eventually into northwest KS/southwest NE by early evening. DISCUSSION...Midday satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east from eastern UT into northwest CO/southern WY. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will continue to increase in the areas downstream over the Front Range. Strong heating and orographic ascent of a seasonably moist airmass (17 UTC surface observations in the WY-CO I-25 corridor indicate 50s deg F dewpoints) will contribute to thunderstorms continuing to initiate during the next hour or so (between 18-19 UTC). Forecast soundings show buoyancy increasing to around 1500 J/kg near I-25, with 2000-2500 J/kg farther east near the CO/KS/NE tri-state border by late this afternoon. Ample deep-layer shear due to easterly low-level flow veering to westerly and increasing with height will strongly favor storm organization. The early convective cycle of the storms will likely feature a mix of supercells and multicells. The hail risk will be most prominent during this period in which storms have not transitioned to a more outflow-generating storm mode. Large to very large hail (peak diameter potentially in the 2 to 3 inches range) will be possible with these storms. The potential for severe gusts will quickly increase once cold pools become established and additional storm merging occurs. A linear cluster evolving into a forward-propagating squall line will probably occur later this afternoon into the evening. Severe gust intensity will correspondingly increase with potential peak wind speeds in eastern CO/northwestern KS in the 75-90 mph range. ..Smith/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41690495 41800410 41500345 40970239 40820164 40380123 39620114 38990127 38530203 38410279 38460401 39050499 39460533 39930539 40660538 41290523 41690495 Read more