Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more