Severe Storms

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 398 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 081825Z - 090100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Far Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they spread eastward from the Front Range across the central High Plains. Initially large to very large hail will be the main threat with more discrete cells. A transition to a greater threat for significant severe winds will likely occur as a bowing cluster eventually develops later this afternoon into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Denver CO to 25 miles east northeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1206 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast and east-central CO into far southwest/west-central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082320Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail (up to 2.75 inches), significant gusts (70-80 mph), and a couple tornadoes continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KGLD/KPUX depicts a pair of intense discrete supercells tracking generally east/southeastward at around 20 kt over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Lincoln Counties in east-central CO. A tornado and baseball-sized hail has been reported with the northern/eastern supercell. These storms are in a very favorable environment for the maintenance of supercells, with moist/backed easterly surface winds (lower 60s dewpoints) beneath a belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies (per regional VWP). Additionally, ample clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH) should support continued strong low/midlevel mesocyclones given the seperated/discrete mode. As a result, very large hail (up to 2.75 inches) and a couple tornadoes are the main concern with these storms, with locally damaging gusts also probable. Farther south over Otero and Bent Counties in southeastern CO, an intense line segment has evolved in a moderately unstable air mass. 40 kt of effective shear orthogonal to the line and a moist/well-mixed boundary layer should support the maintenance or even intensification of these storms as they continue eastward. Significant gusts of 70-80 mph could accompany this activity. A brief mesovortex tornado or two is also possible with these storms, given the ample low-level SRH described above. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38860341 39350279 39340241 39210205 38810190 38020196 37610219 37580294 37690359 37920368 38510352 38860341 Read more

MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082239Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of significant severe-gust potential (75-85 mph) is evident for the next few hours across portions of northeast Colorado. Sporadic large hail and brief tornadoes are also possible. DISCUSSION...An upscale-growing cluster of storms is tracking southeastward at around 25-30 kt across portions of northeastern CO -- generally between I-70 and I-76. Gusts upwards of 70 mph have been observed with these storms. During the next few hours, continued upscale growth/cold pool consolidation is expected, aided by a glancing shortwave trough (evident in water-vapor imagery) over far northeastern CO. Earlier heating of a relatively moist boundary layer (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates should support continued surface-based inflow for intensifying updrafts at the leading edge of the convective line. And, around 50 kt of westerly/line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (sampled by regional VWP) should aid in organized embedded updrafts with instances of deep/persistent rotation. As a result, the organizing cold pool and embedded supercell/mesovortex structures will be capable of producing significant gusts of 75-85 mph as it continues southeastward for the next few hours. Sporadic large hail and brief tornadoes will also be possible, especially with the embedded supercells/mesovorticies. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39860388 40200352 40360327 40470295 40300245 40060212 39580213 39280239 39120294 39070364 39310417 39500426 39860388 Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-049-055-065-075-089-121-135-090040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY FULTON GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE MARION RANDOLPH SHARP KSC011-021-037-107-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MOC009-011-013-015-023-029-035-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-077- 083-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-141-145-149-153-161- 167-169-179-181-185-186-187-203-209-213-215-217-221-223-225-229- 090040- MO Read more

WW 399 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO 082225Z - 090600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 525 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage and move southeast across the watch area through late this evening. Damaging wind gusts are expected, in addition to large hail. possibly up to 2.5 inches in diameter. In addition, a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Joplin MO to 20 miles northeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 398 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 081825Z - 090100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Far Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they spread eastward from the Front Range across the central High Plains. Initially large to very large hail will be the main threat with more discrete cells. A transition to a greater threat for significant severe winds will likely occur as a bowing cluster eventually develops later this afternoon into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Denver CO to 25 miles east northeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1204 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR A SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...a small portion of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082038Z - 082245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...A significant severe wind swath possibly beginning around 2230 UTC and spreading east-southeast through 01 UTC into far western KS is forecast. Peak gusts within the evolving severe linear cluster of storms are expected to range from 75-90 mph. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a moist axis extending westward from western KS into eastern CO near the I-70 corridor. Burlington, CO ASOS (KITR) shows temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with a lower 60s dewpoint. Modifying the 19 UTC model RAP model run valid for 20 UTC at the nearest forecast sounding location (Goodland, KS) for the Burlington, CO observed surface conditions, yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Furthermore, the wind profile shows an elongated but "m-shaped" hodograph which will favor precipitation seeding with initially cellular storms currently located north through southwest of the Limon, CO vicinity as of 2030 UTC. As this storm activity moves into a slightly more moist airmass and cold pool development matures, expecting an evolution into a more linear storm mode and increasing severe-gust potential. Several recent time-lagged HRRR model runs support the notion of this corridor being the most favorable for severe gusts. Steep lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts, coupled with more than adequate mid-level westerly flow, will support severe gusts potentially peaking in the 75-90 mph range during the 2230-0100 UTC period. ..Smith.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39520126 39190111 38820119 38510143 38410182 38850306 39070310 39380299 39710271 39810227 39520126 Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0399 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082027Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to gradually deepen across far southeast KS into southwestern MO amid modest surface heating, despite the presence of mid to high-level clouds passing over the area. Insolation is aiding the surface layer to approach convective temperatures (upper 80s F), with MLCINH substantially eroding. Deep-layer ascent is weak across the eastern Plains, with no substantial synoptic features evident to mechanically lift buoyant surface-based parcels to their LFC. Therefore, stronger surface heating will be the most likely mechanism for supporting robust convective initiation later this afternoon. Should this occur, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 70s F surface dewpoints yields 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE, contained within deep and wide profiles. Despite modest (i.e. 25-35 kts) of effective bulk shear, 20-30 kts of veering 925-850 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved low-level hodographs. The deep, wide CAPE profiles coinciding the modest notable low-level shear will foster strong updrafts becoming multicellular/transient supercellular, accompanied by a severe hail and wind threat. If a more sustained supercell structure can form, a tornado could occur, though overall confidence in this scenario is low. With details concerning timing of convective initiation and subsequent storm coverage remaining uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37539574 37969509 38109354 37779211 37209169 36689196 36589315 36809431 37199531 37539574 Read more

MD 1202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Colorado...extreme northeastern New Mexico...extreme southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081915Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon, with the greatest chance of storms occurring along a stationary boundary along the TX/OK Panhandles border area. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Upslope flow over the Raton Mesa is contributing to convective initiation, with additional storm development likely as strong surface heating continues along an west-east oriented baroclinic boundary situated near the TX/OK Panhandle border. Surface temperatures near this boundary are approaching 100 F amid 50-60 F surface dewpoints, resulting in the development of a deep boundary layer. RAP forecast soundings show classic inverted-V profiles extending up to 600 mb. 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates support thin CAPE profiles, from 600-200 mb, atop the deep boundary layer. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear, mainly pulse-cellular storms with dry microburst potential are expected, with the best chance of storms being along the baroclinic zone. Given the overall isolated coverage of thunderstorms and associated severe gust potential, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37220483 37460352 37390139 36980038 36340010 35890039 35750095 35840179 35920287 36070357 36390430 37220483 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more