Severe Storms

MD 1207 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Southern Missouri Region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399... Valid 082358Z - 090130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399 continues. SUMMARY...Convection should increase across ww399 this evening along with an attendant severe risk for wind/hail. DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging is expected to gradually relax this evening. This is supported by a recent uptik in convection south of a weak surface boundary that is currently draped east-west, just south of I70. Visible satellite imagery depicts a considerable amount of agitated cu from southeast KS into south-central MO where several robust thunderstorm clusters are maturing. This activity is evolving within a very unstable air mass, and cloud tops suggest these updrafts are processing air efficiently. Current thinking is a considerable amount of convection may ultimately evolve across ww399 and large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms. ..Darrow.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 38549480 37779021 36179019 36969482 38549480 Read more

MD 1208 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...The western half of Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 090004Z - 090130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for parts of the area by 01Z. Primary concerns are significant severe gusts up to 80 mph and large hail. DISCUSSION...During the next few hours, a mix of supercells and bowing line segments currently tracking east-southeastward across eastern CO (in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398) will continue across the western half of Kansas. Current expectation is for much of the ongoing activity to congeal into organized clusters as they continue eastward into tonight -- given strong/persistent outflow generation. The downstream environment features middle/upper 80s temperatures amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints beneath an EML/steep lapse rate plume. The resultant moderate/strong surface-based instability should support a continued severe risk with eastward extent into tonight. Around 50 kt of westerly effective shear should also favor organized clusters capable of significant winds gusts (up to 80 mph) and instances of large hail. It is still unclear if one consolidated MCS can develop, but if this scenario unfolds, more widespread severe wind can be expected. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued by 01Z for much of the area. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37630201 38290200 39020184 39480154 39670132 39650069 39139793 38259723 37529717 37089726 37089948 37110071 37240164 37630201 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts of 70-85 mph and large hail are expected to move from western into central Kansas through the evening. Strong to severe storms also remain possible from southeast Kansas into southern Missouri this evening into the overnight hours. ...Western into central KS... Multiple storm clusters with some embedded supercells are ongoing from eastern CO into western KS this evening, with a short-term threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. With time, consolidation into a larger storm cluster and possibly an MCS remains possible, which could result in an increasing threat for damaging severe gusts in the 70-85 mph range across parts of western into south-central KS later this evening. See MCD 1208 for more information. ...Southeast KS/southern MO...extreme northeast OK/northern AR... Several strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of southern MO, in the vicinity of a weakly confluent surface boundary. Strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1207 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. Some modest upscale growth of ongoing convection is possible with time, which could spread a damaging-wind threat toward parts of the mid MS/lower OH Valleys and potentially into western TN. Overnight, multiple storm clusters and possibly an MCS may move across from western into southern KS and southwest MO, and perhaps adjacent portions of extreme northern OK/AR. The longevity of the severe threat with the overnight storms remains uncertain with CINH expected to increase substantially with time, but at least an isolated threat of damaging wind and perhaps some hail could persist through the end of the forecast period. ...Northern CA into southern/eastern OR... High-based convection is ongoing early this evening from extreme northern CA into southern OR. Isolated downbursts will remain possible for a few hours this evening before convection subsides later tonight. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0400 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082239Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of significant severe-gust potential (75-85 mph) is evident for the next few hours across portions of northeast Colorado. Sporadic large hail and brief tornadoes are also possible. DISCUSSION...An upscale-growing cluster of storms is tracking southeastward at around 25-30 kt across portions of northeastern CO -- generally between I-70 and I-76. Gusts upwards of 70 mph have been observed with these storms. During the next few hours, continued upscale growth/cold pool consolidation is expected, aided by a glancing shortwave trough (evident in water-vapor imagery) over far northeastern CO. Earlier heating of a relatively moist boundary layer (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates should support continued surface-based inflow for intensifying updrafts at the leading edge of the convective line. And, around 50 kt of westerly/line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (sampled by regional VWP) should aid in organized embedded updrafts with instances of deep/persistent rotation. As a result, the organizing cold pool and embedded supercell/mesovortex structures will be capable of producing significant gusts of 75-85 mph as it continues southeastward for the next few hours. Sporadic large hail and brief tornadoes will also be possible, especially with the embedded supercells/mesovorticies. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39860388 40200352 40360327 40470295 40300245 40060212 39580213 39280239 39120294 39070364 39310417 39500426 39860388 Read more

MD 1206 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeast and east-central CO into far southwest/west-central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082320Z - 090045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...Risk of very large hail (up to 2.75 inches), significant gusts (70-80 mph), and a couple tornadoes continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KGLD/KPUX depicts a pair of intense discrete supercells tracking generally east/southeastward at around 20 kt over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and Lincoln Counties in east-central CO. A tornado and baseball-sized hail has been reported with the northern/eastern supercell. These storms are in a very favorable environment for the maintenance of supercells, with moist/backed easterly surface winds (lower 60s dewpoints) beneath a belt of 40-50-kt midlevel westerlies (per regional VWP). Additionally, ample clockwise low-level hodograph curvature (around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH) should support continued strong low/midlevel mesocyclones given the seperated/discrete mode. As a result, very large hail (up to 2.75 inches) and a couple tornadoes are the main concern with these storms, with locally damaging gusts also probable. Farther south over Otero and Bent Counties in southeastern CO, an intense line segment has evolved in a moderately unstable air mass. 40 kt of effective shear orthogonal to the line and a moist/well-mixed boundary layer should support the maintenance or even intensification of these storms as they continue eastward. Significant gusts of 70-80 mph could accompany this activity. A brief mesovortex tornado or two is also possible with these storms, given the ample low-level SRH described above. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38860341 39350279 39340241 39210205 38810190 38020196 37610219 37580294 37690359 37920368 38510352 38860341 Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 ..THORNTON..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-049-055-065-075-089-121-135-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY FULTON GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE MARION RANDOLPH SHARP KSC011-021-037-107-090140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MOC009-011-013-015-023-029-035-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-077- 083-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-141-145-149-153-161- 167-169-179-181-185-186-187-203-209-213-215-217-221-223-225-229- 090140- Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 399 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 ..THORNTON..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...EAX...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 399 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-049-055-065-075-089-121-135-090140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY FULTON GREENE IZARD LAWRENCE MARION RANDOLPH SHARP KSC011-021-037-107-090140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MOC009-011-013-015-023-029-035-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-077- 083-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-141-145-149-153-161- 167-169-179-181-185-186-187-203-209-213-215-217-221-223-225-229- 090140- Read more

WW 0398 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W DEN TO 30 E SNY. ..THORNTON..06/08/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 398 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-059-061-063-073-075-087- 089-095-099-101-115-121-125-090040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-181-193-199-203-090040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more