Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will rebuild across the Southwest, favoring warm/dry conditions across the region. However, generally light surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) are expected, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient beneath the ridge. Therefore, locally elevated conditions are possible across the Southwest (given receptive fuels), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will rebuild across the Southwest, favoring warm/dry conditions across the region. However, generally light surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) are expected, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient beneath the ridge. Therefore, locally elevated conditions are possible across the Southwest (given receptive fuels), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will rebuild across the Southwest, favoring warm/dry conditions across the region. However, generally light surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) are expected, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient beneath the ridge. Therefore, locally elevated conditions are possible across the Southwest (given receptive fuels), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will rebuild across the Southwest, favoring warm/dry conditions across the region. However, generally light surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) are expected, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient beneath the ridge. Therefore, locally elevated conditions are possible across the Southwest (given receptive fuels), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will rebuild across the Southwest, favoring warm/dry conditions across the region. However, generally light surface winds (outside of terrain-favored areas) are expected, owing to a weak surface pressure gradient beneath the ridge. Therefore, locally elevated conditions are possible across the Southwest (given receptive fuels), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more