Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast. ...Northern and central High Plains... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee troughing to persist over the northern High Plains. As an axis of modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the afternoon. Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough. As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind gusts and hail. Some upscale growth of storms is expected by evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift east-southeastward off the higher terrain. Severe potential -- increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Southern High Plains... A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area, while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development of afternoon thunderstorms across the area. While shear will remain generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and evening. As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat greater potential for strong wind gusts. At this time, will refrain from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this scenario. ...Parts of the Southeast... As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused along the frontal zone. With rather weak low-level flow but some enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before storms weaken after dark. ..Goss.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more