Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0402 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR NORTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and far northeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092349Z - 100145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out. Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254 35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337 34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013 34988006 35338029 Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092328Z - 100130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast, but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains rather warm and well mixed. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891 43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876 41641905 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 9 23:03:02 UTC 2024.

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0402 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 402 SEVERE TSTM AL 092300Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Alabama * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across the watch area this evening and tonight, with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 30 miles east southeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern Mississippi through central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092047Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms, including at least short-lived supercell structures, may continue to gradually develop through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air which has advected across and east-southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, surface temperatures are warming through the lower/mid 90s F. Within a seasonably moist boundary layer, it appears that this is contributing to large CAPE up to 2500-3000 J/kg, near the southern periphery of stronger west-northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 35-45 kt around 500 mb). Although much of the region appears south of the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent, deepening convection, including at least a few attempts at sustained thunderstorm development, appear to be underway. With at least some further erosion of inhibition with continuing insolation, it appears that this may continue with widely scattered intensifying thunderstorms possible through late afternoon. Although low-level wind fields and hodographs are rather weak, deep-layer shear appears supportive of appreciable mid-level rotation and the occasional evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34628980 34298856 33898607 32398745 33319006 34209086 34628980 Read more

MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA TO CENTRAL IDAHO AND FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Nevada to central Idaho and far southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092032Z - 092230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through early evening across northeastern Nevada into Idaho and far southwest Montana. Sporadic hail and damaging to severe winds are possible, but this threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. GOES daytime RGB imagery shows multiple agitated cumulus fields from central NV into central ID as ascent overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level disturbance over central NV and a more prominent shortwave trough approaching the Cascades. Additionally, regional temperatures continue to generally rise into the low to mid 80s, which should be sufficient to erode any lingering inhibition. These trends suggest that additional thunderstorm development is likely within the next couple of hours. MRMS echo top and vertical ice data show that most cells have been relatively transient, but a few more robust updrafts have persisted across northern NV ahead of the mid-level disturbance. The KCBX VWP has recently sampled 25-35 knot winds between 5-6 km, suggesting that the better kinematic environment resides across northern NV to central ID. This region also has slightly better moisture content (GOES-estimated PWAT values between 0.8-1.0 inch) compared to the rest of the region. Consequently, storms developing in or migrating into this region may see the highest potential for large hail and severe wind given the better thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Severe wind may be the more probable of the two hazards given somewhat modest buoyancy profiles within the hail production layer and modest hodograph elongation compared to 8-9 C/km lapse rates from the surface to 3 km AGL and the increasing potential for storm interactions/upscale growth through early evening as additional convection develops. This idea appears to be well supported by high-res probabilistic hazard guidance, though the overall coverage of the severe threat should remain sufficiently low to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 41371360 40861412 40551495 40471560 40621614 41081654 41921675 42841648 43541601 44201527 44981389 45291283 45251228 44981195 44501159 43371172 41961298 41371360 Read more

MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of northwestern through north central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092010Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying convection, including one or two storms at least occasionally taking on supercell structure, appears likely through 4-6 PM CDT. This may pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for producing a tornado. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development, including recent initiation of thunderstorm activity, is ongoing northwest of Russellville AR. This is where low-level convergence has become maximized near the intersection of a southward advancing cold front and the stalling western flank of convective outflow from overnight convection. Beneath 30-35 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, surface temperatures are warming through the lower/mid 90s F in a narrow corridor just to the southwest of the outflow boundary, extending across and east-southeast of the Little Rock area. This is occurring beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air, where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. It is possible that this is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with a subtle mid/upper perturbation. Regardless, there appears sufficient deep-layer shear to support intensifying convection and the evolution of at least transient supercell structures with increasing inflow of the unstable boundary-layer air. This likely will pose a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps at least some risk for a tornado while slowly propagating east-southeastward through 4-6 PM CDT. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 35829425 35949391 36079321 35819217 35339092 34389147 35079328 35209385 35479434 35829425 Read more

MD 1217 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Central Colorado to northern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091956Z - 092200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose an sporadic large hail and severe wind threat through the late afternoon hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has been well underway over the past several hours within the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies of central CO to northern NM. Initial, orographically-driven cells have largely struggled to organize or persist for more than roughly 30 minutes due to poor environmental wind shear and residual capping over the lower elevations to the east. However, buoyancy is slowly increasing amid rising low-level temperatures with recent RAP mesoanalyses estimates showing SBCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg along the CO Front Range. MRMS hail/vertical ice metrics have shown a slow, but steady increase over the past few hours as updrafts realize the improving thermodynamic environment. As such, a few instances of severe hail appear possible through late afternoon as updrafts continue to develop within the upslope flow regime. The severe hail threat may be regionally highest along the CO Front Range where more persistent 10-15 knot southeasterly flow is supporting some hodograph elongation, which may promote better storm organization and longevity. Continued boundary-layer mixing through late afternoon should also promote increasing cold pool intensity/depth. This may allow for cold-pool-driven propagation of one or more storm clusters off the higher terrain with an attendant increase in severe wind potential through early evening. This scenario is hinted at in recent HRRR solutions across southeast CO/northeast NM, but confidence in this occurring at any one location is low given the inherent low-predictability of this high CAPE/low shear environment. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... LAT...LON 35500599 35730635 36250647 37360646 37870651 38430649 38950647 39480610 39660572 39650491 39440460 39180449 38820446 38340442 38020433 37460414 36660411 36130422 35680477 35420545 35370578 35500599 Read more

MD 1216 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into western Texas and southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091935Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated through the late afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico into western and central Texas and southwest/southern Oklahoma. While sporadic hail and damaging winds are possible, storm organization/longevity should remain limited. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few attempts at sustained convective initiation across central to western TX along a diffuse surface trough/confluence zone to the east of a weak surface low over the Trans Pecos region. Additional cumulus development is noted along a cold front pushing southward through southern OK and northwest TX. More robust/sustained convection appears likely within the next 1-2 hours across both of these regions as diurnal heating and weak mesoscale ascent further erode lingering inhibition and surface-based parcels approach their convective temperatures (generally in the mid 90s). To the west, persistent cloud cover over NM has limited daytime heating to some degree, but filtered insolation will continue to destabilize a reasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints are about the 75th percentile for early June across southeastern NM). A few early updrafts are noted in far southeast NM with additional/more numerous thunderstorm development within the upslope flow regime anticipated a little later this afternoon, most likely during the 21-23 UTC period based off recent high-res guidance. Both regions are characterized by moderate to strong SBCAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), weak deep-layer wind shear (based on recent VWP observations), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers. Consequently, the expectation is for initially discrete to semi-discrete cells to pose an early severe hail risk before quickly becoming outflow dominant with additional redevelopment along outflow boundaries. One or more somewhat organized clusters may emerge and pose a more focused severe wind threat if consolidated cold pools can become established; however, this appears to be a low-predictability scenario given the potential for scattered thunderstorms over a broad region. Given the poor kinematic environment and low-confidence in where more focused severe wind corridors will emerge, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 30830296 31320355 32240440 32810454 33600445 34080412 34500353 34860272 34840175 34529952 34719800 34999684 34969630 34519614 33989640 33569682 33059803 32769861 32149893 31429869 30729871 30309892 30109932 30049994 30010059 30130135 30830296 Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 401 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 092100Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 401 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern Mississippi Far Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening while spreading slowly east-southeastward. Damaging winds of 55-70 mph may occur with any clusters, while severe hail of 1-2 inches in diameter appears possible with any discrete cells that can be maintained. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Russellville AR to 10 miles north northeast of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Gleason Read more