Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

MD 1215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091045Z - 091215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...There is an increased damaging wind threat across parts of southwest Missouri over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A confined region of increased damaging/severe wind threat exists along the warm front/outflow boundary across southwest Missouri. Greater than 50 knots of base velocity is being sampled from KSGF across western Greene County at less than 500 ft AGL. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume at least some of this wind is making it to the surface which would result in some damaging wind threat. The longevity of this wind threat remains questionable as its propagation is into the rain-cooled airmass to the east. Additional development/intensification is possible on the southern edge of the ongoing severe warned storm. However, convection in this area has been quite weak thus far, likely due to increasing inhibition with southern extent. Due to the relatively isolated and likely shorter duration of this threat, no watch is anticipated. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 37709388 37489275 37209214 36929195 36729209 36749294 36879367 37009400 37199407 37399401 37709388 Read more

MD 1214 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090751Z - 090915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will persist this morning. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms with occasional supercellular characteristics have developed across southwest Missouri in a region of weak isentropic ascent and moderate instability. The primary threat will be isolated large hail, with that threat persisting through the early morning hours. The long-lived, severe-wind producing MCS across western Kansas is not anticipated to reach southwest Missouri, at least not with substantial severe potential, given the increasing inhibition and widespread stabilizing convection ahead of the remaining line. Therefore, an isolated large hail threat may persist and necessitate a watch extension for a few more hours. However, an additional watch for storms moving out of Kansas is unlikely, for the aforementioned reasons. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38299451 38519323 38359203 38059147 37629104 37049105 36449168 36539275 36749368 37179457 38299451 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

MD 1213 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400... Valid 090645Z - 090815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400 continues. SUMMARY...The severe wind threat will continue through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...A long-lived line of severe wind producing thunderstorms continues east across south-central Kansas. Recent gusts of 50 knots in Pratt, KS and 51 knots near Medicine Lodge, KS have been observed and radar trends suggest the severe wind threat may have increased recently with 50 to 60 knots of base velocity sampled by KICT. This is likely related to the strengthening low-level jet (now near 50 knots on the VNX VWP) and the changing orientation of the squall line. This changing orientation (now aligned more normal to the 0-3 km wind shear vector) and the presence of multiple outflow boundaries from the line of storms across east-central Kansas, may increase the tornado threat for a few hours as ingestion of low-level streamwise vorticity is favored. A recent 50 knot wind gust was observed on the Woods County, OK mesonet as the outflow boundary passed, outside of the convection. This indicates the strength of the cold pool which as developed. Given this mature cold pool and a reservoir of mid 70s dewpoints which remain across south-central and southeast Kansas, this line of storms may persist with a severe wind threat through the morning as it moves east. The NWS in Wichita will locally extend watch 400 for areas east of Wichita to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37139839 37339867 37829874 38129873 38349769 38289559 38009486 37499460 37099481 37029639 37139839 Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PNC TO 15 S HUT TO 30 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE RSL. ..BENTLEY..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-079-099-113-115-125-133-155- 159-169-173-191-205-207-090840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY LABETTE MCPHERSON MARION MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more