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SPC Jun 9, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 2 months ago

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more