Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across New Mexico was expanded to the north and east. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in association with a small short-wave trough moving northward on the western periphery of a sub-tropical ridge. Additionally, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was added to portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah. A band of ascent is seen on mid-level water vapor moving across central Nevada this morning. This ascent may combine with afternoon heating to result in isolated thunderstorm development. A very dry airmass in place will limit widespread precipitation from reaching the ground. In both of the aforementioned scenarios, only marginally receptive fuels may limit fuel receptiveness to lightning-induced fire starts. Elsewhere, please see below for the meteorological reasoning. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more