Severe Storms

MD 1180 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern New York into eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061658Z - 061830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across portions of the Hudson Valley into the Mid Atlantic. 40-55 mph wind gusts are the main threat with the stronger storms. 60+ mph gusts will likely be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Efficient diurnal heating is supporting the breach of convective temperatures (i.e. upper 70s/low 80s F) across portions of the Mid Atlantic, as a 500 mb vort max also approaches the Hudson Valley. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that convective initiation appears underway across portions of central NY into central and eastern PA. These storms are developing amid a moist and heated low-level airmass, but with poor (5.5-6 C/km) tropospheric lapse rates. As such, the rate of increasing thunderstorm intensity will be strongly dependent on continued surface heating and further steepening of boundary layer lapse rates through the afternoon. Multicellular to perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are expected, as modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow atop weaker low-level winds will support small low-level hodographs, but with some mid-level elongation. Strong wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range (capable of localized damage) are expected with the stronger storms. However, the overall severe threat appears to be more isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40217445 39987471 39857503 39797548 39857599 39957632 40147658 41137620 42897605 43997584 43977523 43477439 42447393 41237414 40217445 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri Valley... As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected. This will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints) northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving Nebraska warm front. Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer. Isolated storms should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection. Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska, near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves beginning in the early evening. Initial storm development here would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding favorable shear for organized/rotating storms. While a tornado would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more likely severe-weather risks. With time, this convection may also grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight. Storms would eventually weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and western Missouri. ..Goss.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for the aforementioned region, south of the more significant precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern OR and ID. Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here, where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be present. ..Barnes.. 06/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. ...Dry Thunder... Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5 inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more