Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN LONG ISLAND...AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. Other widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will undergo at least some amplification through this period. By Saturday night, this is forecast to include a building ridge across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and adjacent portions of northwestern Canada. Downstream, flow across the Minnesota international border vicinity through the upper Great Lakes may trend broadly cyclonic, to the southwest of a significant deep-layer cyclone slowly progressing across the eastern shores of Hudson Bay into northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a weak short wave perturbation may suppress ridging across the northern Intermountain Region. Otherwise, ridging appears likely to remain prominent across much of the West into the Great Plains, with an embedded high becoming centered over the Four Corners states. As downstream ridging across the subtropical western Atlantic builds northwestward toward the Mid Atlantic coast, troughing between the ridges is forecast to become increasingly sheared across the southern Appalachians through southern New England. At the same time, a tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean vicinity may begin impacting the Florida Straits and southern Florida Peninsula late Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this regime, some lower/mid-tropospheric drying appears likely to continue spreading southward through the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with seasonably high moisture content (including a plume of precipitable water in excess of 2 inches) largely confined to the southeast of the southern Appalachians through the New England coast. However, lingering low-level moisture beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated-mixed layer air may contribute large potential instability ahead of a cold front advancing southward through the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Mid/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Although the approaching mid-level trough is forecast to become increasingly sheared and weaken, the height gradient between the troughing and the downstream building ridge may maintain modest south-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) to the lee of the Appalachians on Saturday. Beneath this regime, within the lee surface troughing, a moist boundary-layer including 70 F+ dew points appears likely to contribute to large CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg with daytime heating. Given weak mid-level inhibition, it appears that this will support considerable thunderstorm development, with strongest storms posing a risk for producing damaging wind gusts, aided by heavy precipitation loading and downward mixing of momentum. ...Northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Convective development appears likely to largely hinge on one or two subtle perturbations progressing through northwesterly flow near the base/southwestern flank of the large-scale mid-level troughing. Substantive spread exists among the various model output, including the convection allowing guidance. While it appears that thunderstorm development may remain isolated to widely scattered in coverage, shear beneath the northwesterly mid-level regime will be sufficient for supercells and one or two widely scattered upscale growing clusters with potential to produce strong wind gusts may not be out of the question Saturday evening. ...Florida... Beneath a warm mid-level environment, models (NAM in particular) suggest that precipitation preceding the developing tropical perturbation may stabilize the boundary layer across much of the interior peninsula Saturday through Saturday night. While trends will need to continue to be monitored, the risk for severe weather through this period currently appears low. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic Seaboard... An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late afternoon. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ...Southeast Arizona... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon, will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024 Read more

MD 1792 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR EASTERN KY/TN INTO WESTERN VA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KY/TN into western VA and extreme southwest WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 020101Z - 020230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will continue eastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...While the northern portion of the long-lived MCS moving across KY has weakened, some intensification has been noted along the southern portion of the gust front, as the attendant cold pool has overtaken a preceding band of convection that developed from northeast TN into southeast KY. This portion of the MCS produced a 49 kt gust near London, KY, and will pose the greatest relative threat for damaging wind. A gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight, as MLCINH begins to increase and downstream buoyancy decreases, but in the short term, warm/moist conditions and MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg will support at least isolated damaging-wind potential through much of the evening. ..Dean.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36458371 37038335 37868270 37648167 36858188 36108255 36048420 36268395 36458371 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE TYS TO 45 NNW TRI TO 35 SSE HTS TO 25 N HTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 ..DEAN..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC195-020340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE VAC027-051-020340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON WVC011-043-045-047-059-099-109-020340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABELL LINCOLN LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO WAYNE Read more

WW 589 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 012245Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 645 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move west to east across much of the Watch area this evening. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-60 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Huntington WV to 35 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N TYS TO 25 SSE JKL TO 15 ENE JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 45 WNW HTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 ..DEAN..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-071-115-119-127-133-153-159-193-195-020240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD FLOYD JOHNSON KNOTT LAWRENCE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE VAC027-051-020240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON WVC011-043-045-047-059-099-109-020240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more