Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0590 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more