Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 3 16:26:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more