Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-069-071-077- 081-085-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-135-145-151-153-157-159-165- 167-169-171-179-181-183-185-197-032040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HOKE IREDELL LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES SURRY UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN YADKIN SCC021-023-025-039-047-055-057-059-063-071-079-081-083-087-091- 032040- SC Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-032040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-032040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-032040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Update... Isolated dry thunderstorms are still expected Sunday within a plume of mid to upper-level moisture from OR eastward into the central Rockies of WY and CO. Some wetting rains appear likely further north over MT, where deeper moisture and stronger ascent will be. Please see the previous discussion for additional details regarding thunderstorms. In addition to extending the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area further east, an Elevated area has been included for a small portion of the Central High Plains. A lee surface low will deepen near this region throughout the day. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer of a narrow corridor of higher mid-level wind speeds, should support breezy westerly to southerly surface winds across the aforementioned region. This is also where fuels continue to become more receptive, and RH is anticipated to quickly drop into the low teens very early in the afternoon. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...southern Virginia...much of North Carolina and into far northern South Carolina. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031739Z - 031915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development should commence early this afternoon off the higher terrain. A few stronger clusters may emerge with a risk for damaging gusts. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed deepening cumulus towers and initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over parts of the Carolinas and southwestern VA. Aided by ascent from a broad eastern US trough, strong diurnal heating atop a very humid air mass (dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F) will remove lingering inhibition over the next couple of hours. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely by mid afternoon. Despite only modest mid-level lapse rates, the robust heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE favorable for strong updrafts. Somewhat enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the trough may also support storm organization into multi-cell clusters, with effective shear values around 25 kt. AS storms gradually increase in coverage and intensity, a few more organized clusters may evolve as individual cold pools begin to consolidate. With the marginal shear values for storm organization, a few of these clusters may have greater longevity and more intense cores. With very high PWATS near 2 inches and the large buoyancy, damaging downdraft winds are the most likely threat. Confidence in storm coverage appears greatest over parts of southern VA into central NC. With the risk for damaging winds likely to increase over the next couple of hours, a WW is being considered. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35808108 37267987 38097872 38077760 37677653 36997655 35977709 35257773 34527863 34387962 34338067 34428116 35098158 35808108 Read more

MD 1801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1801 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of the mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031656Z - 031830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will likely pose a risk for damaging/severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Given the potential for organized storms, a WW is likely. DISCUSSION...Across the eastern US, a broad positive-tilt mid-level tough was observed via early afternoon WV overspreading a warming and destabilizing air mass across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians. Initial thunderstorm development has commenced with additional towering cumulus evident over the higher terrain and on localized convergence features over much of the Northeast. As surface temperatures continue to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s F, very moist surface dewpoints in the 70s F will aid in eroding the remaining minimal inhibition and continued storm development. Moderate to large buoyancy is expected by mid afternoon with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg more than adequate for strong updrafts. Enhanced mid-level flow near the upper trough is also supporting 25-35 kt of effective shear suggesting some potential for storm organization into bands or clusters. While mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep, generally 6.5-7 C/km the magnitude of buoyancy and potential for more organized multi cells will foster a risk for stronger and more sustained downdrafts. High PWATS and water loading will also support stronger damaging wind potential with a risk for severe gusts from the more organized and persistent cores. Early sat/radar trends, coupled with recent HRRR data, suggest increasing storm coverage over central PA into northern MD may organize into several bands or more persistent multi-cell clusters through the early afternoon. As they track east towards the I-95 corridor and establish stronger surface cold pools, damaging gusts are likely. A few of the more persistent or organized linear bands may also pose a risk for stronger severe gusts to 65-70 mph. With the severe risk increasing through the afternoon, a WW is likely needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40347691 41617545 42007469 42077411 42017371 41907353 41307344 40637351 40447392 39527426 39087484 38377679 38277733 38217749 38007911 38247927 38607899 40267708 40347691 Read more