Severe Storms

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0598 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0598 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0598 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 1824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest and north-central Pennsylvania...western and central New York. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051648Z - 051815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway from northern Ohio into southern New York where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints near 70F. Weak confluence in the vicinity if a stationary front across the region, in addition to some lake-breeze convergence, will be the primary focus for convective initiation as a weak mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the west. Moderate west-northwesterly shear (40 to 45 knots) will support supercells with the threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41018217 41888171 42617947 42937903 43187840 43257653 43087584 42137597 41187859 40968019 40718141 41018217 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 596 TORNADO FL GA CW 050955Z - 052000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northern Florida Southeastern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Per NHC forecasts, Hurricane Debby should move slowly northeastward/inland after landfall, to near the FL/GA line during the duration of this watch. Associated tornado potential -- mainly northeast through southeast of center -- should spread over the watch area and across more of northern FL and southeastern GA through early/mid afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Saint Petersburg FL to 50 miles north of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 595. Watch number 595 will not be in effect after 555 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 18035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more