Severe Storms

MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST
Mesoscale Discussion 1828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of the northern Rockies and Northwest Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052035Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging wind gusts and small hail. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, afternoon vis/radar imagery showed thunderstorms beginning to develop across the higher terrain of the Northwest and northern Rockies. North of the prominent subtropical ridge, a weak Pacific trough was slowly overspreading the monsoon moisture over much of the Northwest. Weak buoyancy will continue to support thunderstorm development through much of the afternoon with occasional stronger updrafts. Modest westerly flow aloft may also support a few more organized multi-cell clusters or transient supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds or small hail in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. However, limited buoyancy and the lack of more focused forcing for ascent suggests the severe threat should remain fairly isolated. Conditions will continue to be monitored, but a WW currently appears unlikely. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 42111654 42281695 42861719 45361828 47521678 47641638 48231398 47101288 44501249 43501258 42421314 42141381 42061428 42111654 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-023-025-029-037-051-053-055-063- 067-069-073-077-097-099-101-107-109-117-121-123-052240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BROOME CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHAUTAUQUA CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OTSEGO SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WAYNE WYOMING YATES OHC007-055-085-099-133-155-052240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA GEAUGA LAKE MAHONING PORTAGE TRUMBULL Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-052240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-052240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-052240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN Read more

MD 1827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051906Z - 052100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a triple point move east/southeast across the upper Midwest. A mix of supercells and bowing segments may support a risk for all hazards. Confidence on the exact timing of storm development is low, but the severe risk will likely require a WW. DISCUSSION...Early afternoon WV imagery showed a well-defined shortwave trough embedded within expansive zonal/northwesterly flow over the northern third of the CONUS. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a weak wave cyclone along a quasi-stationary front has become better defined. Evident in visible imagery, subtle ascent from the approaching trough and low-level convergence/WAA along the front and ahead of the low is eroding early afternoon inhibition over parts of eastern SD and western MN. A warming and very moist air mass (70s F surface dewpoints) is supporting moderate to large buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE). Seasonably robust vertical shear is also in place ahead of the advancing trough with SPC mesoanalysis showing deep-layer values on the order of 45-50 kt. The favorable overlap of CAPE and shear will likely support organized storms with a mixed mode of supercells and bowing line segments. Initial storm development may occur as early as mid afternoon northwest of the surface low where low-level convergence is strongest and inhibition has rapidly weakened. Should this occur earlier in the day, as hinted by some CAM solutions, convection may initially be elevated with lingering surface inhibition. However, continued destabilization will likely support a transition to near-surface based with additional storm development likely through the remainder of the afternoon. Strong turning in the lowest few km near the quasi-stationary front, in combination with the supercell wind profiles, will likely support a risk for large hail. A couple of tornadoes are also possible with any well-developed supercells near the front. As storms evolve upscale along the boundary, a risk for damaging winds also appears likely.Given the increase in severe risk expected over the next few hours, a watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43779151 43209131 42679139 42339248 42779683 43319759 44279757 44989724 45129704 45089664 44709498 44179246 43779151 Read more