Severe Storms

MD 1808 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN CT...RI...SOUTHEAST MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1808 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...eastern CT...RI...southeast MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032135Z - 032330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets of wind damage are possible through 8pm EDT. The isolated coverage of the expected wind threat will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A warm/moist boundary layer is evident in late afternoon surface observations (temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 with mid 70 deg F dewpoints) over southern New England ahead of a small strong-severe thunderstorm cluster in southwest parts of CT. This activity will likely move east-northeast over the next few hours. Short-term model forecast soundings show upwards of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE with PW around 1.9 inches. A couple of the stronger thunderstorm cores may yield a localized damaging wind risk into the evening before this activity weakens. ..Smith.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41567268 41677258 42067077 41877051 41657055 41507073 41207283 41567268 Read more

MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1806 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032123Z - 032330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce sporadic strong gusts around 50-65 mph and hail up to 1.25 inch diameter into this evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon under the influence of a southward developing convectively enhanced vorticity max over eastern CO/western KS. While moisture is limited, steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Aided by the vorticity max and vertically veering wind profiles, effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support sporadic organized convection despite modest boundary-layer moisture/instability. Modified 12z and forecast soundings indicated a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles. This will aid in development of strong downdrafts and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts. Furthermore, elongated hodographs amid favorable vertical shear and steep lapse rates suggests any longer-lived and well-organized cells may produce hail to near 1.25 inch diameter. Given the modest thermodynamic environment, a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected, but sporadic strong to locally severe storms are possible into the evening. ..Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36870392 37110369 37250308 37360230 37500126 37240069 36660055 35920073 34940143 33870217 33750325 34070398 35160420 36390398 36870392 Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0593 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 593 SEVERE TSTM MN SD WI 032325Z - 040600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Minnesota Northeast South Dakota Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 625 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and move east-southeast through the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail (diameter 1 to 2.5 inches) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) will be the primary storm mode through the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may occur later this evening with severe gusts possibly becoming the main hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Ortonville MN to 80 miles northeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 591...WW 592... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1807 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592... FOR NORTHERN SOUTHERN CAROLINA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1807 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...Northern Southern Carolina...Central North Carolina...Central Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592... Valid 032127Z - 032300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues in WW592. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues from east-central Virginia into the Carolinas producing occasional damaging winds (e.g., tree damage). This line has generally been moving north-northeast, and a local extensions to WW592 may be utilized, though surface objective analysis indicates mid-level capping remains in place further eastward across NC/VI. This leads to some uncertainty in how long storms will maintain severe characteristics with eastward extent. Occasional severe winds can be expected in the near term with this line. Further west along the front, additional storm development may be possible. Due to the more discrete nature of this convection, potential for large hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Thornton.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34168152 34598179 34908187 35078187 35468182 36108128 37067971 37677877 37947780 37737719 37447706 37157711 36317732 35797778 35387821 34947877 34707912 34467952 34108000 33898054 33708086 33808133 34168152 Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LYH TO 35 WSW DCA TO 30 ESE MRB TO 15 E MRB. ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-032340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-032340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-032340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HKY TO 20 NW DAN TO 20 SW CHO TO 15 WSW CHO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-007-015-025-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-069-071- 077-081-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-135-145-151-153- 157-159-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-197-032340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON BERTIE CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE IREDELL LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN YADKIN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more