Severe Storms

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-069-071-077- 081-085-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-135-145-151-153-157-159-165- 167-169-171-179-181-183-185-197-031940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HOKE IREDELL LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES SURRY UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN YADKIN SCC021-023-025-039-047-055-057-059-063-071-079-081-083-087-091- 031940- SC Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-031940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-031940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-031940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND FAR SOUTHEAST GA...OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may pose at least some risk for severe weather across parts of Florida and adjacent southeastern Georgia, portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and portions of the northern High Plains Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Four Corners early Sunday morning, influencing the sensible weather over much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central/southern Plains. A deep upper low is forecast to move across the Hudson Bay /northern Quebec, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly flow aloft between this upper low and the Southwest upper ridge, extending from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. Several shortwave troughs are possible within these westerlies, including one expected to move into the Upper MS Valley during the afternoon and another one farther west that is expected to move through the northern High Plains and into the northern Plains. Farther east, modest upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Northeast through the Carolina early Sunday, before gradually shifting eastward/northeastward throughout the day. A tropical system initially over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeastward, likely making landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the FL Big Bend Monday morning. Most significant surface feature Sunday morning, aside from the deepening tropical cyclone, will be the weak frontal zone that extend from a low over eastern MT southeastward to another low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection vicinity and then back northeastward through central WI and central Upper MI. This boundary will likely remain stationary throughout the day, likely sharpening amid strong mixing to its south. ...Eastern FL Panhandle/FL Peninsula into Far Southeast GA... A tropical cyclone is forecast to begin the period centered well off the coast of southwest FL before progressing north-northeastward throughout the day and deepening. Rainbands associated with this system will likely spread across FL in several rounds throughout the day, with the highest coverage of thunderstorms and greatest several potential from 16Z to 00Z when daytime heating could boost buoyancy slightly. Low-level wind fields will likely strengthen as the overall system strengthens, with moderate to strong veering low-level profiles expected throughout the period. Any deeper, more persistent updrafts could briefly organize, with some brief tornadoes possible. A few strong convectively augmented gusts are possible as well. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and mid-level moisture attendant to a shortwave trough progressing through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from northwest WY into central MT Sunday afternoon. These storms will likely continue into more of eastern MT during the evening, encountering better low-level moisture and potentially interacting with the surface low at the western end of the frontal zone described in the synopsis. Low-level easterly flow will help increase deep-layer vertical shear within this region as well. A few strong to severe gusts are possible with the earlier more cellular activity but a relatively greater potential for strong gusts is anticipated farther east across southeast MT when better low-level moisture and easterly/southeasterly surface winds will be in place. Some potential exists for loose organization across the cold pool, but capping issues from far southeast MT into the western Dakotas will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Guidance varies on the impact of boundary layer mixing and warm mid-level temperatures across the southern MN/northern IA/southwest WI vicinity during the afternoon and evening. Some guidance allows for enough low-level moisture and strong buoyancy and the potential for robust updrafts capable of strong gusts and/or large hail. However, other guidance keeps the capping in place, with the strong heating south of the boundary still not enough to overcome the warm mid-level temperatures. This merits keeping low severe probabilities, although higher probabilities maybe needed if trends indicate an increased likelihood for afternoon/evening convective initiation. Elevated thunderstorms are likely across the northern Plains overnight Sunday as the northern High Plains shortwave trough continues eastward into the northern Plains. A few stronger storms are possible, but most the these storms are currently expected to stay below severe thresholds. ..Mosier.. 08/03/2024 Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0591 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 3 16:59:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more