Severe Storms

MD 1799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO CONNECTICUT.
Mesoscale Discussion 1799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern maryland...Delaware...New Jersey and southern New York into Connecticut. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590... Valid 022301Z - 030000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590 continues. SUMMARY...The linear cluster of storms across the Mid Atlantic will remain capable of damaging gusts before moving offshore this evening. Additional storms over eastern MD and CT may also pose some risk for damaging winds through the evening. DISCUSSION...As of 23 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a line of storms stretching from far southern NY into parts of the DelMarVA. Periodic wind damage and a few severe gusts have been observed with this line of storms over the past couple of hours. Moderate buoyancy remains in place ahead of the line over the Atlantic Seaboard. While shear remains fairly minimal, a well-developed cold pool (forward speed of 20-25 mph) has allowed for continued propagation and support of transient strong updrafts. Damaging gusts will remain possible with the stronger cells along and ahead of the outflow before it moves offshore over the next hour. Farther north, the cold pool/storms may remain inland for more of the evening over parts of southern NY/Long Island and western CT. While temperatures are cooler than farther south, 70s F dewpoints and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should remain sufficient for maintenance of the squall line as it approaches from the southwest. Isolated damaging gusts in the 45-60 mph range are possible as the northern half of the line and its cold pool approach. Storms should gradually weaken as the move farther east this evening and begin to encounter increasing nocturnal inhibition. Redevelopment along the southwestern flank of the initial line of storms over eastern MD may also support some severe risk through the evening hours over MD and DE. While confidence in storm organization here, moderate buoyancy should continue to support storm development with periodic stronger updrafts and water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging near-severe gusts. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39457628 39957498 40497455 41107428 41637425 41907395 41957362 42027329 42027285 42017263 41837240 41567235 41367253 40697330 40497371 40017397 39657415 39147471 38847500 38587516 38467559 38417584 38467623 38637634 38737638 39067649 39457628 Read more

MD 1798 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022251Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours with the stronger cells from eastern Mississippi eastward across central Alabama. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east-to-west oriented broken line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms extending from just north of Birmingham westward into eastern Mississippi. This line is located from near and just to the south of an axis of strong instability, where the RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition to the strong instability, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham has 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 kt range. This will support an isolated wind-damage threat as the cluster moves southeastward across far eastern Mississippi and central Alabama this evening. If the line can continue to organize a cold pool, then the potential for severe wind gusts could continue for a few more hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33708816 33848882 33838923 33638945 33268940 32958924 32748898 32618829 32618698 32718602 32918559 33208548 33568549 33748581 33638684 33708816 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BWI TO 10 SW PHL TO 15 WNW NEL TO 15 S EWR TO 30 SW POU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-030040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-030040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-030040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN Read more

WW 590 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 022005Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Northeast Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will track across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Dover DE to 20 miles north northeast of Lakehurst NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Hart Read more

MD 1797 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1797 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern VA and far northern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022134Z - 022300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms may pose a risk for isolated wind damage late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the central Appalachians have gradually coalesced into a loosely organized cluster across parts of southern VA and far northern NC. The environment ahead of this cluster is very warm and unstable with temperatures in the 90s F and 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. However, very limited deep-layer shear is in place, with most VADs showing generally less than 20 kt. While modest in organization, the fairly pronounced cold pool moving into plentiful buoyancy should continue to support strong transient updrafts. The high PWAT air mass and pulse-like nature of the convection should also support occasional stronger downdrafts within the collapsing cores. Isolated damaging winds are possible along with a low-end risk of higher gusts to 50-60 mph. Displaced away from deeper forcing for ascent and flow aloft, storm organization will remain tied to the propagation along and ahead of the outflow. This should remain fairly limited in scope, and a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 37897821 38087755 38107730 37997671 37637633 37007605 36817596 36547611 36367665 36327699 36337849 36547921 37247870 37657841 37897821 Read more

MD 1796 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022049Z - 022245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across the region this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed in the upper 90s/low 100s amid strong boundary-layer mixing across the central High Plains. This strong mixing has dropped dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s, which is still sufficient for airmass destabilization, with little to no convective inhibition remaining on recent mesoanalysis. Given that this region is beneath the upper ridge, mid to upper level flow is weak. Even so, modest vertical shear is still possible across the region given the strong veering from surface southeasterlies to modest mid-level northwesterlies. Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear around 30 kt. While this is likely enough shear for some modest updraft organization, the combination of modest buoyancy with this modest shear will likely prevent an organization storm mode. However, given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, a few damaging gusts may occur as updrafts collapse. ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39180378 38820480 39250493 39910529 41190524 41820530 42340543 42820574 42930500 42800359 42150255 41020268 39180378 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ILG TO 10 NNW ILG TO 10 W TTN TO 20 NNE TTN TO 30 NW EWR. ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-022240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-011-015-025-029-035-041-510-022240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-029-033-035-022240- Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ILG TO 10 NNW ILG TO 10 W TTN TO 20 NNE TTN TO 30 NW EWR. ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-022240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-011-015-025-029-035-041-510-022240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-029-033-035-022240- Read more

MD 1795 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1795 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021945Z - 022045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast MD and eastern PA may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. A WW is uncertain though convective trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Over the last hour, a cluster near the MD/PA border has slowly intensified with a notable increase in lightning and reflectively. Likely supported by subtle ascent from a passing shortwave and remnant convective outflows, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely continue to support strong updraft development/maintenance. Vertical shear is quite limited with flow generally less than 25 kt. Storm intensity will likely remain tied to forward propagation along advancing outflow with this cluster. The moderate buoyancy and large water loading will likely support a isolated stronger downdrafts with low-end potential for 50-60 mph gusts. Storms should track east/northeast through the afternoon across parts of eastern PA into NJ. Storm organization appears quite limited. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40407573 40777465 40767419 40477393 39847432 39497479 39417523 39397569 39417606 39447623 39597646 39717638 40407573 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more