SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1793

1 year ago
MD 1793 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SOUTH KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...northwest/north-central OK and extreme south KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020551Z - 020745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe gusts of 45-60 mph along with small hail will be possible with a slow east-southeastward-moving cluster along the northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas border area. DISCUSSION...Outflow mergers yielded a rather deep convective cluster with very cold IR cloud top temperatures. While the strength of the wind profile is modest with 20-25 kt mid-level north-northwesterlies per DDC/VNX VWP data, a ribbon of weak easterly low-level flow is situated north of the west/east-oriented portion of the surface front about 3 counties deep into OK. This is aiding in effective bulk shear enhancement, and may support loose organization in this cluster and downstream cells forming within a zone of isentropic ascent. Buffalo, OK, mesonet measured a 56-mph gust at 0530Z. Along the western periphery of the moderate buoyancy plume across northern OK to the MO/AR border area, additional strong to marginally severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours before convection likely wanes towards dawn. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37179922 37119805 36709716 36539673 36279670 35949717 35929824 35869949 36389969 36739972 37179922 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move across southern California into Oregon through the D1 period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will be in place. Increasing moisture, in combination with forcing from the midlevel disturbance, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the high terrain of California into portions of central Oregon and western Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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