Severe Storms

MD 1787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1787 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011906Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase as destabilization in the vicinity of a weak surface low continues. More intense storms may be capable of severe wind, hail, and perhaps a short-lived tornado. DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the late morning and early afternoon hours across central WI in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Gradual cloud-top cooling has been noted over the past 30-60 minutes in GOES IR imagery, implying that convection is slowly becoming more intense amid continued daytime heating and gradually cooling mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the surface fronts draped to the south/southeast of the low. Initially discrete cells quickly developing into clusters given the weak (20-25 knots) deep-layer wind shear noted in regional VWPs. More intense updraft pulses may be capable of large hail (generally between 0.75 to 1.25 inches), and perhaps a brief landspout tornado given ambient low-level vorticity in place along the surface boundaries and adequate low-level buoyancy. As convection grows upscale, damaging winds should become the predominant hazard. Limited wind shear magnitudes and a high probability for destructive storm interactions should modulate the overall severe threat. Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45419122 45649088 45849035 45899006 45848971 45738934 45568913 45228888 44148848 43518817 43178798 42948799 42818804 42698820 42658842 42708863 42828937 42888953 43148988 44669103 44949123 45119130 45419122 Read more

MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1786 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011853Z - 012100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose an isolated damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening. Limited environmental wind shear will modulate the overall severe threat and preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Convection has been slow to mature across the Mid-Atlantic region over the past few hours - largely due to modest (around 5.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and shallow EL levels. Nonetheless, continued daytime heating has been promoting gradual destabilization and a slow uptick in convective intensity based on recent GOES IR imagery and lightning trends over the past 30 minutes or so. Continued daytime heating may act to mix out the seasonally marginal low-level moisture downstream of developing convection, which should limit MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. However, this will maximize boundary-layer mixing/depth and support steep low-level lapse rates favorable for downdraft acceleration. Weak flow over the region will generally limit storm longevity and organization, but sporadic damaging winds (generally between 40-60 mph) appear possible given the thermodynamic environment. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38137953 38417943 39707803 40737630 40747590 40627550 40377522 40127511 39757522 38357648 38177666 38027698 37987734 38007923 38137953 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE PAH TO 35 NNE OWB TO 45 WNW SDF TO 10 NNE BMG. ..LEITMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-029-031-043-061-071-077-079-093-105-115-117- 123-137-143-147-155-175-012140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER SWITZERLAND WASHINGTON KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-059-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-101- 103-107-111-113-117-123-137-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-177-179- 181-183-185-187-191-201-207-209-211-215-217-223-225-227-229-233- 239-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE PAH TO 35 NNE OWB TO 45 WNW SDF TO 10 NNE BMG. ..LEITMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-019-025-029-031-043-061-071-077-079-093-105-115-117- 123-137-143-147-155-175-012140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DEARBORN DECATUR FLOYD HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER SWITZERLAND WASHINGTON KYC001-003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-029-031-037-041-045-049- 053-057-059-061-067-073-077-079-081-085-087-091-093-097-099-101- 103-107-111-113-117-123-137-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-177-179- 181-183-185-187-191-201-207-209-211-215-217-223-225-227-229-233- 239-012140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOST OF KENTUCKY INTO OHIO...AND OVER PARTS OF INDIANA AND WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with the primary threat being damaging winds. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the existing outlook primarily behind the ongoing severe MCS now over southern IN and into far northern KY. A moist and unstable air mass remains downstream of this system, and the potential remains for north and/or southward growth as the cold pool increases. In addition, storms may develop into OH ahead of the main system, with localized downbursts possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1788. To the north, an unstable air mass has developed over WI, with scattered cells noted. Shear will remain weak, but continued heating beneath the cool upper trough may support isolated severe storms with wind and/or hail. Some of this activity may persist into the evening into northern IL and IN. With time, severity is expected to decrease. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1787. Elsewhere, a band of strong instability continues to develop in an east-west oriented zone near a weak front extending from the TX Panhandle toward the Ozarks. Isolated storms are expected later today, but the severe threat should remain localized. Although lift is very weak, any cells that develop will have severe gust or brief hail potential. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. Read more

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Northern Georgia into the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011740Z - 011945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered T-storms will pose a damaging wind and large hail threat through the coming hours. Watch issuance is not expected given an overall modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway within the southern Appalachians from northern GA into the western Carolinas. Recent surface observations show temperatures reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s, which should be the convective temperature for most surface-based parcels across the region. This also implies that any lingering nocturnal inhibition is quickly being removed - as evident by an expanding shallow cumulus field. Consequently, thunderstorm development appears possible in the short term as heating of the higher terrain continues. Additionally, an uptick in convective intensity is anticipated in the coming hours as MLCAPE increases to around 3500 J/kg by peak heating. The upstream KMRX VWP sampled 20-25 knot winds above roughly 5 km, which should support some degree of storm organization and longevity. The combination of meager, but sufficient, deep-layer shear, strong buoyancy, and steepening low-level lapse rates should support semi-organized discrete cells and clusters with an attendant risk for large hail (most likely 0.75 to 1.25 inches) and 50-60 mph downburst winds. Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, weak/localized orographic ascent and the modest kinematic environment should modulate overall storm coverage and intensity. ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 32958268 32958299 33098336 34168495 34398512 34598501 34918440 35628338 35878290 34858111 34488105 34238113 33488174 33138226 32958268 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MDH TO 20 WSW EVV TO 20 NNE EVV TO 40 NNE EVV TO 20 SE HUF. ..LEITMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-165-012040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN SALINE INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-055-061-071-077-079-093- 101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-155-163-173-175- 012040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY RIPLEY SCOTT SPENCER SWITZERLAND VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MDH TO 35 NNW EVV TO 30 WSW HUF. ..LEITMAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC033-059-065-101-165-185-193-011940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GALLATIN HAMILTON LAWRENCE SALINE WABASH WHITE INC005-013-019-025-027-029-031-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079- 083-093-101-105-115-117-123-125-129-137-143-147-153-155-163-173- 175-011940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OHIO ORANGE PERRY PIKE POSEY Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IN...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern IL...southern IN...and western/central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011613Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours across southern Illinois and Indiana into parts of western/central Kentucky. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with activity through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed between 17-18z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing late this morning in the vicinity of an MCV over southern IL. Visible satellite and surface obs show an outflow boundary oriented west to east across southern IL into southern IN ahead of this MCV and developing convection. Strong heating is already occurring across the downstream airmass, with temperatures already in the mid/upper 80s along/south of the outflow. With dewpoints in the 70s, the airmass is quickly destabilizing and low/midlevel inhibition rapidly eroding. This should aid in gradually increasing convection (both in coverage and intensity) over the next couple of hours. West/southwesterly, mostly unidirectional wind profiles, with flow around 30-40 kt in the midlevels, will support eastward developing storms tracking along the outflow and instability gradient. Upscale development into a forward propagating MCS is expected, with damaging gusts being the main concern through the afternoon. While flow is mostly unidirectional, some enhancement to SRH is possible in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. Low-level instability is quite high given the very moist airmass. If a well developed bow materializes, a tornado or two can not be ruled out via transient line-embedded mesovortex features, though damaging winds will be the primary hazard. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39088896 39528677 39248494 38648474 37698515 37378607 37298746 37418872 37758946 38188967 38568969 39088896 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more