Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, extensive subtropical ridging is apparent from the northern Bahamas across FL, the north-central/northeastern Gulf, central/west TX, to the Four Corners region, bending northwestward into a large-scale ridge over the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This ridging will consolidate around a developing high over the Four Corners, while weakening over the Southeast/Gulf Coast in response to northern-stream trough amplification across the Great Lakes. The main factor in the latter is a strong shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western MN and western IA, with an embedded 500-mb low over west-central MN. The trough/low should dig southeastward through the period, with the low reaching WI by 00Z and trough south-southwestward across MO. By 12Z, the trough should extend from Lake Huron through the low (then near southern Lake Michigan) to near STL. The surface analysis at 11Z showed a primary synoptic low over western Lake Superior, with cold front southwestward across western IA to central/southwestern KS, the TX Panhandle and northeastern NM. The KS portion of the front may advance far enough southeastward today so that its baroclinicity will blend with that of a northward- drifting, prefrontal outflow boundary now over central/northwestern OK. Otherwise, the low should move/redevelop southeastward to Lower MI through the period, while the trailing front advances down the upper/mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks. ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible between the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon into evening, offering damaging to severe gusts, isolated large hail and a marginal/conditional tornado risk. A mesoscale corridor of more- concentrated wind potential may evolve on the region, but still appears too conditional for greater probabilities at this time. That is because uncertainty continues regarding the relative influence on the main afternoon/evening severe potential of: 1. The ongoing remnant MCS across portions of IL/IN, and the related pressure/theta-e perturbation as it moves eastward over parts of IN/OH and encounters destabilizing, favorably moist boundary layer from midday into early afternoon, and 2. Development either side of the trailing outflow boundary across portions of central IN into southern IL, and especially its northern extent into heated/modified outflow air from the previous MCS. A corridor along and south of the outflow boundary, and east of the continuing MCS, should be characterized by upper 60s to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. This will combine with strong surface heating to yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range, beneath difluent yet strengthening mid/upper winds ahead of the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear will weaken with eastward extent, but should be favorable for supercells in the first few hours of the main convective cycle. Ultimately, one or two dominant, forward- propagating MCSs may evolve out of either scenario numbered above, with a swath of damaging to severe gusts possible. ...Upper Mississippi Valley to parts of the Upper Great Lakes... Closer to the mid/upper low -- across WI and vicinity -- widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon-developing thunderstorms are possible in an arc moving mostly eastward over the region. This close to the low/trough, deep shear will be relatively weak, limiting overall convective organization. However, mid/upper-level DCVA/cooling, and related steepening of deep-layer lapse rates in conjunction with diurnal heating, will overlie favorable pockets of low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. As such, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected in a "top-heavy" buoyancy profile (with largest LIs in the 500-300-mb layer). Pulse-severe hail and gusts will be the main concerns. The threat should weaken rapidly after sunset. ...Northeastern NM to Ozarks... The combined outflow/frontal baroclinic zone cross this corridor, as well as the Raton Mesa and eastern parts of the southern Rockies, should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Some of this convection may persist through the evening where upscale clustering can occur, but in general, should diminish after dark. Isolated severe gusts are the main concern. The most intense cores may bring down locally severe hail as well, despite very high ambient freezing levels. The kinematic environment along the boundary will be characterized by strong veering of winds with height, but weak absolute speeds, rendering largely 25-35-kt effective-shear magnitudes and slow motions for those thunderstorms not accelerated by local to mesobeta-scale cold-pool processes. A well-mixed and deep boundary layer showing "inverted-V" profiles on forecast soundings should develop through the afternoon, with temperatures commonly over 100F in elevations below about 4500 ft, and along and south of the boundary. This will support DCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg beneath similar MLCAPE values. Just north of the front, somewhat less-intense heating/mixing, but richer moisture, will yield an axis of 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE near and largely parallel to the KS/OK line. A mix of wet and dry downburst characteristics therefore is possible across this corridor. ...Mid Atlantic to GA... A broad swath of the Eastern Seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic region to parts of GA, and the central/southern Appalachians, will experience isolated to scattered thunderstorms today. Strong diurnal heating and rich boundary-layer moisture will increase buoyancy and erode MLCINH, beneath broadly difluent mid/upper-level flow. Large-scale vertical motion will be weak (upward or downward) over the region, with the bulk of lift coming from residual outflow/ differential-heating boundaries, terrain features, and perhaps sea-breeze boundaries. Veering of winds with height is likely beneath modest mid/upper westerly to northwesterly flow, but lack of greater low/middle-level speeds will limit deep shear. A few multicellular clusters are possible within this regime, offering locally concentrated damaging-wind potential, with isolated gusts near severe limits possible in the most intense, water-loaded cores. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010719Z - 010845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Conditional potential exists for an increase in strong to severe gusts from 50-65 mph across a part of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into central Illinois. If realized, the threat may only last for a couple hours. DISCUSSION...An uptick in deep convection, largely displaced west of a leading outflow boundary, occurred about 30 minutes ago across a part of northeast MO, seemingly associated with a subtle MCV moving east. A gust of 48 mph was recently measured at the Columbia, MO ASOS where the trailing portion of outflow from this cluster overtook the lead outflow from a separate cluster of deep convection, now over west-central IL. As this northeast MO cluster merges into the leading cluster in west-central IL, an increase in strong to severe gusts may occur farther south in central IL. If this occurs, this may be relatively short-lived, around a couple hours, owing to southwesterly low-level flow roughly paralleling the large-scale convective outflow and lack of stronger forcing for ascent heading into sunrise. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39649121 39829099 39949049 40328969 40208936 39998890 39688874 39318871 38998881 38838920 38589004 38619084 38819164 39649121 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more