Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 1 23:46:16 UTC 2024.

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 588 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 011710Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Far Southwest Ohio * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southern Illinois should further intensify this afternoon as it spreads eastward across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but an line-embedded tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHWEST OH...AND NORTHERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Central/eastern KY into southeast IN...southwest OH...and northern TN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588... Valid 012215Z - 012345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will move eastward into early evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS currently moving across central KY continues to show signs of organization, with a well-defined cold pool and evidence of a relatively strong rear-inflow jet from regional VWPs. However, recent measured gusts have generally been subsevere, in the 35-45 kt range. While relatively weak low-level flow and deep-layer shear may continue to limit severe-wind potential to some extent, very warm, moist, and unstable downstream conditions (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) will continue to support a threat of at least isolated damaging wind as this MCS continues eastward into the early evening. As the MCS approaches the eastern edge of WW 588, downstream watch issuance will be possible, especially if there is any uptick in measured gusts and/or overall organization and intensity of the system. ..Dean/Smith.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 39258548 39338447 38998333 38198274 36958326 36208445 36258577 36438693 36638744 36938755 37318647 37978556 39258548 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 589 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 012245Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 645 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move west to east across much of the Watch area this evening. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-60 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Huntington WV to 35 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico into the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012015Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage away from higher terrain is slowly increasing across northeastern New Mexico and portions of the western OK/TX Panhandles. Thermodynamic conditions are favorable for strong to severe outflow winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing for much of the afternoon within the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Raton Mesa within a weak upslope flow regime, but have remained relatively benign. However, more recent convective initiation is noted along a subtle surface trough/confluence zone draped to the southeast across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle. Temperatures climbing into the upper 90s and low 100s are eroding any lingering MLCIN, which should continue to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along the surface boundary over the next few hours. These hot conditions are driving dewpoint depressions upwards of 30-50 F, implying that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place across the region - especially along and south of the boundary - that will promote strong downdraft accelerations. Weak flow aloft will limit storm organization and longevity, but strong to severe outflow winds appear possible. Some recent CAM solutions hint that a cold-pool driven cluster may emerge across northeast NM later this afternoon/evening and propagate to the southeast. This would pose a somewhat more widespread wind threat, but this scenario is conditional on achieving sufficient convective coverage and cold pool amalgamation. Other solutions suggest that a storm or two may migrate far enough east to intensify within a more moist/buoyant air mass. However, this potential appears limited given a high likelihood for the development of undercutting outflows. Given low confidence in these scenarios, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36600508 36660494 36790471 36890427 36930410 36960361 36940314 36770277 36520237 36230212 35970195 35610184 35430181 35110186 34980199 34810229 34650268 34560334 34580378 34690415 34950440 35250467 35630505 36060525 36300524 36410513 36600508 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An extended period of chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will occur from D3/Saturday through D5/Monday. Moisture transport around the western periphery of an mid-level anticyclone centered over the Central Rockies/Intermountain West will persist as several subtle shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima provide suitable ascent for thunderstorm development. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Beginning D3/Saturday, a shortwave trough moving along the western periphery of the aforementioned mid-level anticyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. The chances for dry thunderstorms expand on D4/Sunday due to widespread buoyancy sufficient for thunderstorm development with deeply-mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles across much of the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Some of the convective extent in southern portions of the D4 highlight area remains uncertain, due to proximity to the center of the anticyclone and weak height rises. Some chances for dry thunderstorms may persist across eastern Washington into Montana and northern Wyoming on D5/Monday. However, through the period of D3/Saturday - D5/Monday, some uncertainty remains in the receptiveness of fuels to lightning-based ignitions, particularly across portions of Idaho and western Montana. With multiple rounds of storms and at least some wetting rainfall, as well as uncertainty in the amount of fuel curing before convective episodes start, significant changes to the dry thunder outlook areas are anticipated. As the forecast and fuel quality becomes more clear, changes to the forecast areas may be needed. ...Dry/Windy... Dry and windy conditions are forecast to return to the Northwest and portions of the Great Basin starting D5/Monday and persist through at least D7/Wednesday. However, current forecast guidance suggests conditions will remain below Critical highlight criteria, but will continue to be monitored in further updates. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more