Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1794 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 1794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021743Z - 021945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasional severe storms evolving along previous outflow may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. Confidence in storm organization is low, and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed several clusters of strong to occasional severe thunderstorms evolving across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Over the past 2 hours, these storms have intensified along previous outflow boundaries across northern AL and a weak MCV over TN/VA/NC from prior convection. Weak ascent ahead of a broad central US trough should continue to support additional storm development through this afternoon. Robust diurnal heating and dewpoints in the 70s F are supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is not particularly robust, generally less than 20 kt. However, some slight mid-level enhancement has been noted on area VADs ahead of the MCV across western NC and VA. Given the moderate buoyancy but limited deep-layer shear, storm organization should be confined to stronger pulse-type updrafts with microburst potential. Isolated strong to occasionally severe gusts are possible with the more robust cores through this afternoon. However, given the limited potential for storm organization, confidence in the need for a WW is low. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34898172 34498319 34258420 33898580 33948655 34128683 34388683 34808613 35178503 36458296 37468185 37358112 36648051 35968066 35128127 34898172 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more