Severe Storms

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...coastal and near coastal counties of Georgia and South Carolina. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 051849Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be needed later this afternoon in coastal areas across eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. DISCUSSION...Instability has mostly struggled to move inland within the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby where persistent stratiform rain has been present all day. A push of higher moisture content and greater instability is advancing toward the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This may result in a greater threat for cellular convection and stronger updrafts late this afternoon and this evening. Any storms which can develop would pose a tornado threat given the favorable wind shear sampled by the JAX VWP. In addition, the low-level hodograph is starting to elongate at CLX, with this increasing low-level shear expected to advance up the coast this evening and into the overnight hours. With tornado watch 596 expiring at 20Z, a new tornado watch will be issued for portions of coastal South Carolina and parts of Coastal Georgia. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...JAX... LAT...LON 31978066 31278111 30698135 30438153 30768182 31158185 31458176 32618127 33228028 33787963 33887905 33847864 33617866 33237899 32947920 32428005 31978066 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0599 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0599 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0599 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1825 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...eastern New York...southern New Hampshire and Vermont...and northern Massachusetts. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051758Z - 051900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are possible this afternoon/evening with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s south of a stationary front from eastern New York to near Boston with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg. Expect instability to increase this afternoon with scattered thunderstorm development likely along the frontal zone. 35 to 45 knots of westerly shear will support supercells and a threat for large hail and potentially some damaging wind gusts. This threat should primarily exist during peak heating with storm intensity expected to wane near sunset. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42187467 42477531 42917543 43247545 43657456 43657145 43177053 42657037 42277200 42187467 Read more