Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more