Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to suggest potential for severe weather across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley area Day4/Monday, as a mid-level short-wave trough is shunted northeastward across this region by the persistent central U.S. ridge. Timing of the advance of this feature differs between the GFS and ECMWF, casting some uncertainty, but enough agreement exists to maintain a 15% probability area across this region. One other area of interest Day 4/Monday is across portions of the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity within a northwesterly flow regime on the southwestern side of New England/Canadian Maritimes upper low. Enhanced northwesterlies aloft would be sufficient to produce rather fast-moving bands of storms, but degree of instability remains a substantial question at this time. With intensity of the convection thus still uncertain, will refrain at this time from introducing a risk area. As the north-central U.S. mid-level feature moves into/across Ontario Day 5, a decrease in severe risk is expected despite a weak frontal advance southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Beyond Day 5, models begin to deviate substantially, particularly with respect to their handling of the next trough expected to progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northwestern/north-central CONUS. While some severe potential could accompany this feature, particularly if an evolution that resembles the stronger ECMWF solution plays out, uncertainty precludes any reasonable assessment of severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to suggest potential for severe weather across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley area Day4/Monday, as a mid-level short-wave trough is shunted northeastward across this region by the persistent central U.S. ridge. Timing of the advance of this feature differs between the GFS and ECMWF, casting some uncertainty, but enough agreement exists to maintain a 15% probability area across this region. One other area of interest Day 4/Monday is across portions of the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity within a northwesterly flow regime on the southwestern side of New England/Canadian Maritimes upper low. Enhanced northwesterlies aloft would be sufficient to produce rather fast-moving bands of storms, but degree of instability remains a substantial question at this time. With intensity of the convection thus still uncertain, will refrain at this time from introducing a risk area. As the north-central U.S. mid-level feature moves into/across Ontario Day 5, a decrease in severe risk is expected despite a weak frontal advance southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Beyond Day 5, models begin to deviate substantially, particularly with respect to their handling of the next trough expected to progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northwestern/north-central CONUS. While some severe potential could accompany this feature, particularly if an evolution that resembles the stronger ECMWF solution plays out, uncertainty precludes any reasonable assessment of severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models continue to suggest potential for severe weather across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley area Day4/Monday, as a mid-level short-wave trough is shunted northeastward across this region by the persistent central U.S. ridge. Timing of the advance of this feature differs between the GFS and ECMWF, casting some uncertainty, but enough agreement exists to maintain a 15% probability area across this region. One other area of interest Day 4/Monday is across portions of the southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity within a northwesterly flow regime on the southwestern side of New England/Canadian Maritimes upper low. Enhanced northwesterlies aloft would be sufficient to produce rather fast-moving bands of storms, but degree of instability remains a substantial question at this time. With intensity of the convection thus still uncertain, will refrain at this time from introducing a risk area. As the north-central U.S. mid-level feature moves into/across Ontario Day 5, a decrease in severe risk is expected despite a weak frontal advance southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Beyond Day 5, models begin to deviate substantially, particularly with respect to their handling of the next trough expected to progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northwestern/north-central CONUS. While some severe potential could accompany this feature, particularly if an evolution that resembles the stronger ECMWF solution plays out, uncertainty precludes any reasonable assessment of severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the northern Plains/central High Plains area. At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system, shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus convective development through the period. ...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies... Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to initiate during the afternoon. As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt -- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies. However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which evolve during the afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the northern Plains/central High Plains area. At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system, shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus convective development through the period. ...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies... Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to initiate during the afternoon. As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt -- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies. However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which evolve during the afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the northern Plains/central High Plains area. At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system, shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus convective development through the period. ...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies... Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to initiate during the afternoon. As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt -- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies. However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which evolve during the afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the northern Plains/central High Plains area. At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system, shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus convective development through the period. ...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies... Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to initiate during the afternoon. As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt -- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies. However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which evolve during the afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather risk is expected across the northern Plains area, and in a more isolated manner southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A persistent central U.S. upper ridge will be suppressed southward with time on Sunday, as a western U.S. trough shifts northeastward across the Intermountain West toward -- and eventually into -- the northern Plains/central High Plains area. At the surface, a cold front will accompany the upper system, shifting eastward into the northern/central Plains area, and southeastward across the southern Rockies. This front will focus convective development through the period. ...Northern Plains area southwestward into the southern Rockies... Daytime heating of a moist pre-frontal boundary layer will result in strong destabilization within an axis focused across the eastern Dakotas. While a low-level capping inversion should inhibit widespread convective development, isolated storms are forecast to initiate during the afternoon. As the upper trough advances, a lead belt of moderate -- 30 to 40 kt -- southwesterly flow is forecast atop the frontal zone. Resulting shear will support organized/rotating updrafts, and as such, attendant risks for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther southwestward along the front, a much less unstable airmass is anticipated -- into the central High Plains and southern Rockies. However, a deep mixed layer promoting potential for evaporatively driven downdraft acceleration, and the aforementioned/enhanced belt of southwesterlies at mid levels, suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with a few of the stronger storms/bands of storms which evolve during the afternoon and evening. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ..Karstens.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more