Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear likely across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with weaker and more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies on Sunday. ...Northern Plains... An upper trough will generally weaken as it moves from the Intermountain Region during the day and into the northern Plains through Monday morning. As the parent upper low moves from ID across MT, it will fill, with steadily decreasing flow aloft into the Plains. Despite this, sufficient shear and lift will materialize to support a severe risk centered over the northern Plains. Effective deep-layer shear on the order of 35-40 kt is forecast east of the cold front, which will exist over the central Dakotas. Heating and a moist air mass will yield 3500+ J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe storms are likely to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon. Overall shear looks to be marginal for supercells, given the lack of an appreciable low-level jet. However, veering winds with height may yield transient supercell structures capable of large hail. Clustering or even an MCS may develop with time as storms increase in coverage, with hodographs supporting east/southeast motion. ...Central Rockies/Plains... Modest instability and moisture will extend southwestward along the front and beneath the periphery of the stronger mid/high level winds, from western NE into CO and northern NM. Given both marginal instability and shear, only localized severe gusts are expected. Storms timed during the peak heating hours will likely have a greater risk of strong winds where the boundary layer is deeply mixed. Small hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells over the higher terrain of NM/CO. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 23 17:58:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more