Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. A small area of wind or small hail potential may also develop early over parts of western Missouri. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a large upper trough will affect much of the West, with the primary vorticity max moving across the Great Basin. Southwest 500 mb winds in excess of 50 kt will overspread much of that area, extending into northern Rockies Meanwhile, an upper high will hold from the central and southern Plains to the mid MS Valley through Sunday morning. At the surface, a cold front will roughly stretch from central MT into central NV during the late afternoon, pushing east into the western Dakotas and southeast across UT and southern NV into Sunday morning. The better moisture and instability will be shunted east across far eastern UT and into CO, as low-level drying occurs over AZ and UT with persistent southwesterly winds. Farther east into the Plains, a plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop northward across the MO Valley and toward the upper MS Valley late, aided by a heating/deepening boundary layer and around 30 kt southerly winds at 850 mb. This will also result an unstable air mass, with early-day thunderstorms expected over western MO and toward the mid MO Valley. ...Four Corners to the central High Plains... A fetch of midlevel moisture will remain over the area, which is also on the eastern fringe of the stronger flow aloft. Deep-layer effective shear will average 35-40 kt, a will conditionally favor scattered fast-moving cells. Storms are likely to form my early afternoon over far eastern UT into western CO, and extending southward across western NM. Sufficient shear and instability will favor marginal hail with the strongest cells, while favorable diurnal timing will and steep low-level lapse rates will be conducive for strong wind gusts. ...Parts of central and western MO early... Models are in good agreement with the development of a robust cluster of storms in the early-day warm advection regime centered over western MO. Given weak northwest flow aloft and a moistening low-level air mass, it is conceivable that any large cluster of storms could potentially forward-propagate southward across much of western MO. As such, low severe probabilities have been added. Shear will remain weak, but moderate instability may allow for very brief hail. ..Jewell.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were expanded into southwest Montana, where forecast soundings suggest the potential for fast-moving, high-based thunderstorms over modestly receptive fuels this afternoon. Some of these storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts (around 60 mph), aided by enhanced deep-layer flow/shear and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. For details on the severe-thunderstorm risk, see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Additionally, the Critical area in the Great Basin was expanded slightly eastward and southward, where the latest high-resolution guidance has increased confidence in the overlap of 20-30 mph sustained southerly surface winds and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Over portions of the southern Plains, very hot and dry conditions will develop this afternoon, which combined with breezy/gusty southerly surface winds, may promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. There will also be some potential for an isolated lightning-induced ignition with thunderstorms over north-central TX. Overall, the fire-weather risk across this region appears too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will enter portions of the Pacific Northwest, with enhanced mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Great Basin and vicinity. Afternoon heating/mixing will result in sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph while RH values drop into the teens, resulting in Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions for this region. In addition, forcing for ascent associated with the aforementioned trough will allow for thunderstorms to develop across the Pacific Northwest, with a mix of wet and dry storms expected. Given dry/receptive fuels across the region, the area delineating isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe wind gusts and some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona to extreme southwestern New Mexico, and parts of the High Plains. ...Intermountain West to northern Rockies... The lead portion of an upper trough centered along the coastal Pacific Northwest will shift north-northeastward over the northern Intermountain region in tandem with the exit region of a strengthening mid/upper-level jet. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in this regime preceding the Pacific Coast trough, with initial development over the higher terrain ahead of the surface cold front. Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible, with the potential for a more focused corridor of stronger wind gusts across northwest/north-central Montana late this afternoon through early evening. Additional thunderstorms should form this afternoon across east/northeast Oregon, northern/eastern Idaho, to western Wyoming, and southeastward into Utah/western Colorado, as eastern fringes of large-scale ascent preceding the Pacific Northwest trough and embedded shortwaves overlie destabilizing, elevated terrain. Throughout the corridor, sufficient deep-layer shear (30-45 kt) should exist for organized multicells and small bowing/outflow-driven clusters, and perhaps a few supercells, with some hail and severe-caliber wind gusts possible. ...High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the central/northern Rockies, as well as near the lee trough over eastern Montana this afternoon, with another favored corridor across the central High Plains including northeast Colorado/western Nebraska. Activity should move east-northeastward across the adjoining High Plains. This convection will encounter a diurnally destabilizing, well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, supporting isolated severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail also will be possible. Strongly difluent mid/upper-level flow will exist over most of this corridor, between the Pacific Northwest cyclone and the southern Plains anticyclone, with speeds generally increasing northwestward and low-level moisture greater southward across the central High Plains. Still, sufficient moisture should persist near the Montana lee trough, along with enough veering with height over the entire area to yield enough deep shear (30+ kt effective-shear magnitudes) for organized convection. ...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with a relatively moist air mass and ample insolation. Increasing mid-level southerlies around the western rim of the anticyclone should enable 20-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes, and enough northward storm motion to augment already strong downbursts from the most intense cells locally. An instance or two of marginally severe hail could also occur. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/23/2024 Read more