Severe Storms

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LAA TO 30 ESE LIC TO 20 ENE LIC TO 10 N LIC. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-121-125-230140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-230140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-087-230140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK Read more

MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222251Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage across the central High Plains over the next few hours. Hail/wind are possible with these storms as they spread across eastern Colorado toward northwest Kansas. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has contributed to very steep 0-3km lapse rates across eastern Colorado. Scattered robust convection has developed off the higher terrain which is now propagating over lower elevations where temperatures remain in the 90s. Over the next few hours, this activity will spread into a corridor of somewhat stronger low-level convergence characterized by higher boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Diagnostic data suggests MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg near the CO/KS border where surface dew points are holding above 60F. While satellite imagery does not explicitly reflect any short-wave troughs, modest 500mb southwesterly flow does extend across this region and 0-6km bulk shear is at least 30kt. This environment is supportive of supercells and ongoing activity should continue to grow upscale into the early evening. With time, LLJ is forecast to increase across the TX Panhandle into western KS so a larger complex of storms could emerge. Hail/wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39290438 40480325 39570110 37690229 39290438 Read more

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0644 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 644 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 222325Z - 230500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to congeal into a cluster this evening while moving eastward across eastern Colorado into western Kansas, with mainly a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph. Isolated gusts up to 75 mph appear possible, along with occasional large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Limon CO to 50 miles east northeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Gleason Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 22 22:53:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 22 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Utah and Northern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222028Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue and expand in coverage across portions of northern Arizona into Utah this afternoon/evening. Mid-level west to southwesterly flow around 30-40 kts through the base of a trough across the Pacific Northwest atop southeasterly flow near the surface is supporting modest shear around 30-35 kts across northwestern Arizona into central/northern Utah. Daytime heating has resulted in MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg across northwestern Arizona. In this region a few more organized transient supercells have been observed on radar, exhibiting broad weak rotation at times. Generally weak low-level flow and southwesterly mean flow led to back building cells along the terrain. Some instances of strong to severe gusts and severe hail will be possible given deep layer shear for organization and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Overall, this threat is expected to remain localized and watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 36951454 37681438 39071408 40441358 41621307 41891287 41951198 41891135 41671104 40321121 39671137 38431188 37011162 36431158 36081156 35621191 35471255 35671333 36171407 36951454 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more