Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West. Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the period. ...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High Plains... As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Though instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few stronger storms to evolve. This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer, suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible. By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary. While flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Risk should diminish through late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization. ..Goss.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms with severe gusts and possibly some hail are possible across Montana, the Intermountain West and central Rockies, southeast Arizona, and the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough will persist over the West today. A strong embedded shortwave trough and attendant midlevel jet maximum will move quickly northeastward from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest/northern Rockies through the day. A surface low is forecast to deepen across western MT through the day, in conjunction with the passage of the shortwave trough. A weaker surface low may move gradually northeastward across the southern High Plains. Relatively rich low-level moisture will extend from TX/OK into the central/northern High Plains, while a plume of monsoonal moisture will persist from the Southwest/southern Rockies into eastern parts of the Great Basin. ...Parts of UT/western CO into the interior Northwest and western/central MT... Stronger ascent related to the ejecting shortwave trough over the interior Northwest may remain somewhat displaced from better moisture/instability through the day. However, it will likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across a broad region from UT/western CO into parts of the Northwest/northern Rockies. The combination of relatively high-based convection and increasing low/midlevel flow will support a threat of at least isolated severe gusts across a broad region from the eastern Great Basin into parts of ID/MT. Steep lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could also support an isolated hail threat, where sufficient pre-convective buoyancy can be realized. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across much of western/central MT, due to increased confidence in sufficiently deep convection to support a severe-wind threat. Portions of the Marginal Risk may eventually need greater wind probabilities, if confidence increases in one or more corridors where a greater coverage of severe gusts will be possible. Some severe-wind threat could also evolve west of the current Marginal across parts of OR/WA/western ID, in closer proximity to the shortwave trough, but confidence is lower at this time due to very limited forecast buoyancy in this area. ...Parts of the High Plains... Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is forecast to develop this afternoon across much of the High Plains, along/east of a wavy surface trough extending between the surface lows across MT and the southern High Plains. However, large-scale ascent will likely remain rather nebulous across this region, and the details of storm development and coverage remain uncertain. While midlevel flow will be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther west, it will remain sufficient to support effective shear of 30+ kt, conditionally supporting organized convection. Any sustained storms that can develop and be maintained during the afternoon/evening would pose a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast AZ vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across southeast AZ into adjacent southwest NM. A modest increase in midlevel flow could support somewhat more organized storms compared to Thursday. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear increasing into the 20-25 kt range will support a threat of localized strong/severe gusts and possibly some hail with the strongest storms. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 50 SSW MCK. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC071-109-193-203-230440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREELEY LOGAN THOMAS WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1975 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644... Valid 230144Z - 230345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 continues. SUMMARY...Wind/hail threat will spread across eastern portions of ww644 over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection that initiated over the higher terrain of central/southern CO has matured into an MCS that is now advancing into northwest KS. Over the last hour or so, a weak MCV appears to have developed which is now just south of AKO, supporting the overall organization of this complex. 1km AGL southeasterly inflow across western KS is on the order of 25-30kt, which will encourage propagation across at least the western portions of the main instability corridor. 00z soundings from the central High Plains exhibit substantial CINH, and further boundary-layer stabilization is expected as surface temperatures cool. Given the organization of this complex, further propagation is likely into the eastern-most portions of the watch; however, updraft intensities have likely peaked and gradual weakening can be expected by 03-04z. Until then, damaging winds will likely be the primary risk. ..Darrow.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40200372 40500082 38750082 38450370 40200372 Read more

WW 644 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 222325Z - 230500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 644 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Far Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to congeal into a cluster this evening while moving eastward across eastern Colorado into western Kansas, with mainly a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph. Isolated gusts up to 75 mph appear possible, along with occasional large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Limon CO to 50 miles east northeast of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ITR TO 10 ESE ITR TO 20 NNW ITR TO 25 SSE AKO TO 25 W AKO. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC121-125-230240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-230240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-087-230240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK Read more

WW 0644 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE ITR TO 10 ESE ITR TO 20 NNW ITR TO 25 SSE AKO TO 25 W AKO. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC121-125-230240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-109-153-181-193-199-203-230240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC057-087-230240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNDY HITCHCOCK Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated hail remain possible over parts of the central High Plains this evening. ...Central High Plains... Storms have intensified early this evening across eastern CO, with several measured severe gusts (including 68 kt at Lamar, CO), and large hail reported west of Goodland near the CO/KS border. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection through the evening. Isolated supercells with a short-term threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a brief tornado will continue to be possible in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary across northwest KS. A continued tendency toward one or more outflow-driven clusters is expected with time, with a threat of 60-80 mph wind gusts spreading across parts of western KS. An eventual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, as MLCINH increases with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 08/23/2024 Read more

MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222251Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase in areal coverage across the central High Plains over the next few hours. Hail/wind are possible with these storms as they spread across eastern Colorado toward northwest Kansas. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has contributed to very steep 0-3km lapse rates across eastern Colorado. Scattered robust convection has developed off the higher terrain which is now propagating over lower elevations where temperatures remain in the 90s. Over the next few hours, this activity will spread into a corridor of somewhat stronger low-level convergence characterized by higher boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Diagnostic data suggests MLCAPE values are near 2000 J/kg near the CO/KS border where surface dew points are holding above 60F. While satellite imagery does not explicitly reflect any short-wave troughs, modest 500mb southwesterly flow does extend across this region and 0-6km bulk shear is at least 30kt. This environment is supportive of supercells and ongoing activity should continue to grow upscale into the early evening. With time, LLJ is forecast to increase across the TX Panhandle into western KS so a larger complex of storms could emerge. Hail/wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39290438 40480325 39570110 37690229 39290438 Read more