Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/ ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and across the Four Corners region. ...Four Corners Region... The primary upper trough will move across the Great Basin on Saturday, with upper low moving from northern CA into MT. Midlevel moisture along with heating will lead to a marginally unstable air mass from eastern AZ into southwest CO, near the fringe of the stronger midlevel southwesterlies. As such, storms that develop here during the afternoon may be long-lived enough to produce swaths of strong to locally severe gusts. Stronger effective shear of 35-40 kt may also support cellular storm mode with marginal hail at times. ...Central/Northern High Plains... An upper high will remain over the southern Plains, but the ridge will be shunted east across the northern Plains as the western trough slowly progresses. Surface convergence will be maximized near the cold front/surface trough over eastern MT into the western Dakotas, where gradually increasing deep-layer shear may overlap stronger MLCAPE to the east. As such, any storms that develop in this region during the afternoon and evening may produce locally severe wind or hail. However, overall upper support will remain weak. Farther south into the central Plains, scattered storms over CO and southeast WY may move off the higher terrain, but shear will be weak. However, favorable time of day with steep low-level lapse rates may aid brief hail or strong outflows. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... ...Dry Thunder... Model guidance continues to suggest isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely east of the upper low across parts of OR, ID and MT Friday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATs of 0.7 to 1 inches expected. While the low-levels are not overly dry, relatively high cloud bases (~2 km) and fast storm speeds around 40 mph will tend to limit wetting rainfall. These drier storms will favor an increased risk for lightning atop very receptive fuels over eastern OR and western ID. Have adjusted the IsoDryT area to better match the expected coverage of storms over eastern OR and western ID. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over the Great Basin. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the southern Plains. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more