Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1971 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...643... FOR EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1971 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern Montana southeastward to central South Dakota...and into western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...643... Valid 220153Z - 220400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642, 643 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including potential for large hail and damaging gusts -- continues across the northern High Plains vicinity. DISCUSSION...Latest radar composite loop across the northern High Plains region shows clusters of strong/severe storms moving east-northeastward, within a favorably unstable/sheared environment. While hail and damaging gusts are possible with any of the stronger storms, convection appears to be evolving into a semi-organized band across northeastern Montana. This cluster bears watching, as continued organization/intensification could result in the storms becoming sufficiently long-lived to bring risk for severe weather east of WW 643 into western North Dakota over the next couple of hours. This could require downstream WW consideration. ..Goss.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48970909 48990278 47380222 44230058 43580099 44070251 44930360 44920473 45280638 46420731 47540940 48970909 Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLS TO 20 ENE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-079-083-085-091-109-220440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MLS TO 20 ENE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-079-083-085-091-109-220440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 643 SEVERE TSTM MT 220025Z - 220700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 625 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to intensify this evening across parts of northeast Montana, while posing a threat for large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Glasgow MT to 95 miles south of Glasgow MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 642... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP TO 35 ESE 2WX TO 25 N 4BQ TO 5 N MLS. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-220440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-137-220440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP TO 35 ESE 2WX TO 25 N 4BQ TO 5 N MLS. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-220440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON SDC007-055-063-071-095-105-121-137-220440- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MELLETTE PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 642 SEVERE TSTM MT SD 212100Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across southeast Montana and western South Dakota through the afternoon and evening. The strongest cells may produce damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 145 miles west northwest of Broadus MT to 25 miles north northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S RAP TO 40 SSE 2WX TO 20 NE GCC. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-093-095-102-103-105-121-137-220240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S RAP TO 40 SSE 2WX TO 20 NE GCC. ..GOSS..08/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-055-063-071-093-095-102-103-105-121-137-220240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON HARDING JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1970 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern Montana...western North Dakota...northeastern Wyoming...and parts of western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642... Valid 212316Z - 220115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk -- ongoing in/near WW 642 -- is forecast to expand across northeastern Montana over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite loops show isolated convection -- rather slow to initiate thus far -- increasing across portions of the northeastern Wyoming vicinity. While a couple of strong/severe storms persist east of the Black Hills, the aforementioned convection increasing over northeastern Wyoming should continue to increase, and spread into WW 642 with time. Meanwhile, a minor increase in convection over the past half hour is noted over portions of eastern Montana, in the wake of prior storms which have moved across the border into Saskatchewan. Recent HRRR runs continue to show robust convective development across eastern Montana, as a mid-level short-wave trough now over southern Alberta and western Montana advances slowly east-northeastward. With a favorably unstable airmass in place (mixed-layer CAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across east-central and northeastern Montana and into western North Dakota), and moderately strong/increasing flow with height that should strengthen with time with the approach of the mid-level system, the environment within and north/northeast of WW 642 suggests severe potential will persist well into this evening. New WW issuance into portions of northeastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota, currently not included within WW 642, will likely be required within the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Goss.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48970877 48970458 48350405 45170149 43580099 44290392 45570612 47130877 48970877 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more