Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ...UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ...Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ..Jewell.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more