Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible on Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper high will be situated over the central and southern Plains with the ridge extending northward into the upper Great Lakes. A slow-moving upper low will remain over New England, while a larger-scale upper trough develops along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, a trough will extend from the Dakotas into the southern High Plains, providing weak convergence. High pressure will remain over much of the East, resulting in only a narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints in the vicinity of the surface trough. Remnant storms will likely exist early in the day over ND, and they may persist into northern MN during the day. Southerly 850 mb winds around 30-40 kt will maintain theta-e advection into the region, supporting mainly non-severe storms as instability will weaken to the east. Later in the day, heating near the wind shift, where modest instability will develop. Widely scattered storms should result, as far southwest as eastern CO where shear will be weak. Storms over the northern plains may be impacted by the passage of the early day wave, suggesting sparse storm coverage. However, favorable time of day may yield locally severe gust along with hail, as instability is maximized. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more