Severe Storms

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137- 220040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137- 220040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 642 SEVERE TSTM MT SD 212100Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Western South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across southeast Montana and western South Dakota through the afternoon and evening. The strongest cells may produce damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 145 miles west northwest of Broadus MT to 25 miles north northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1969 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1969 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Wyoming into western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212222Z - 212315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail are possible through evening. A WW issuance is not expected given the isolated nature of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells have developed over the higher terrain, where MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts hail possibly approaching severe limits in some of the stronger storm cores. These storms are developing amid 8.5+ C/km low- and mid-level lapse rates, that combined with 30+ kts of effective bulk shear (per 22Z mesoanalysis), should support some continued storm organization through the remainder of the afternoon. Occasional severe gusts or hail are the main threats. However, given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... LAT...LON 41030555 42490309 42890135 42470075 41720099 41310173 41120303 41030449 41030555 Read more

MD 1968 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1968 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212142Z - 212315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours with approach of peak afternoon heating. These storms are developing atop a low-level airmass characterized by steep low-level lapse rates. Given relatively weak vertical wind shear in place, storms will likely remain pulse-cellular in nature, though a few multicell clusters are possible. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple instances of large hail may also accompany the strongest, longest-lived storm cores. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31231125 32191173 33041210 33561201 33541125 33221064 32690992 32150936 31550924 31230931 31231125 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 21 21:27:15 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south late this weekend into early next week as an omega block breaks down over the central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft east of the low will overspread a dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest, supporting elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. Flow aloft returns to more zonal flow later next week with some risk for additional fire-weather concerns, though forecast confidence is low. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Stronger flow aloft on the eastern side of the approaching upper low will overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin late this week and through the weekend. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in sustained 20-30 mph winds and higher gusts remains D3/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT. Several preceding days of RH below 15% and gusty winds will allow area fuels to dry. With ERCs continuing to increase, critical fire-weather concerns are probable. Dry and breezy conditions will likely continue into the weekend over parts of the Rockies beneath the stronger upper jet. Elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of central and eastern WY and northern CO D4/Saturday. Less confidence exists D5/Sunday, but there remains some risk for isolated elevated fire-weather concerns with gusty downslope winds over the Front Range. ...Southern Plains... Dry southerly flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend as lee low deepens over southern CO. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Additionally, a few thunderstorms with some potential for dry strikes in receptive fuels are possible along a stalled front over west TX into the early weekend. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of any significant fire-weather potential for now. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Confidence continues to increase that mixed wet/dry thunderstorms will develop east of the upper low over portions of Northwest and northern Rockies D3/Friday. Model soundings show relatively dry low-levels with storm motions of 30-40 kt. This should support somewhat limited wetting rainfall over parts of eastern OR where fuels are receptive. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. However, increasing PWATs and several days of rain chances should keep the risk of dry lightning relatively limited this weekend and beyond. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0642 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more