Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1972 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... FOR EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern Montana/western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643... Valid 220413Z - 220545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues to gradually diminish across eastern Montana/WW 643. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, a noted/gradual decrease in convective coverage -- and particularly intensity -- has occurred, as the low-level airmass gradually stabilizes. While convection will likely linger over the next couple of hours, including a stronger storm or two at times capable of producing marginally severe hail and/or wind, new WW issuance is not anticipated. As storms move eastward into North Dakota with time, WW 643 will likely be able to be cancelled prior to its scheduled 22/07Z expiration. ..Goss.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 49000430 48990278 47380222 46400279 45890399 46060468 48000518 49000430 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEVADA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more