Severe Storms

WW 688 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 271205Z - 272200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 805 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Tornado threat east of the center of Helene will shift northward across the watch area through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Florence SC to 20 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 687. Watch number 687 will not be in effect after 805 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 6045. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of North Carolina into Virginia. ...20Z Update... Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene. Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene, where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat. ..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC. Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes. Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening. Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE EWN TO 30 ENE RWI TO 15 W RIC TO 20 S DAN TO 20 NNW GSO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-073-091-095-117-131-137-139- 143-177-187-272040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE GATES HERTFORD HYDE MARTIN NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-089-093-095-143-147-175-181- 183-199-550-590-620-650-680-690-700-710-735-740-800-810-830- 272040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mature cyclone is forecast to be centered over the TN Valley early Sunday morning. The cyclone is only forecast to make minimal eastward progress throughout the period, remaining largely in place. Farther west, expansive upper ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley throughout much of the day. Some dampening is possible along the northwest periphery of this ridge as a shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward from southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and the adjacent northern Rockies. At the surface, a low attendant to the TN Valley cyclone will remain largely in place. Low to mid 60s dewpoints will surround this low, covering the OH, TN, and Lower/Mid MS Valley as well as Southeast States. Even with this low-level moisture in place, warm temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection across most of these area. The exception is from the Carolinas southward into the FL Peninsula where models suggest this area may experience enough heating to promote destabilization with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE forecast. Large-scale forcing for ascent will be nebulous, but low-level convergence could still support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Mid-level southwesterly winds will be around 40-45 kt through the eastern periphery of the TN Valley cyclone, and a few stronger storms are possible across the Carolinas. Severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/27/2024 Read more