Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. General thunderstorms are most likely over the Florida Peninsula during the day. ...Synopsis... An upper low will fill as it moves slowly east across KY, with the overall cyclonic regime extending from the lower Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. Southwesterly 500 mb winds of 40-60 kt will exist across the Southeast, with an upper ridge from the Four Corners states into the northern Plains. To the west, lowering heights will exist over the Pacific Northwest as a strong shortwave trough pushes into British Columbia, and a weak upper low affects parts of southern CA late. At the surface, weakening low pressure will exist beneath the aforementioned upper low over KY, with only upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints stretching across the Appalachians and Piedmont. A weak boundary will exist from the northern Gulf of Mexico across northern FL and along the coastal Carolinas and GA, where 70s F dewpoints will reside. However, very dry midlevel air will exist over the same areas. ...Southeast... Thunderstorm chances look to be maximized over FL today, where vertical profiles will be moist. MUCAPE averaging near 1500 J/kg appears likely over much of the FL Peninsula with the aid of heating. However, lift will be weak and unfocused. Still, the uncapped air mass should yield scattered thunderstorms during the day, possibly beginning early over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moving ashore. Forecast soundings show weak winds aloft/shear, and generally poor lapse rates with moist profiles. As such, only general thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Jewell/Barnes.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. General thunderstorms are most likely over the Florida Peninsula during the day. ...Synopsis... An upper low will fill as it moves slowly east across KY, with the overall cyclonic regime extending from the lower Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. Southwesterly 500 mb winds of 40-60 kt will exist across the Southeast, with an upper ridge from the Four Corners states into the northern Plains. To the west, lowering heights will exist over the Pacific Northwest as a strong shortwave trough pushes into British Columbia, and a weak upper low affects parts of southern CA late. At the surface, weakening low pressure will exist beneath the aforementioned upper low over KY, with only upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints stretching across the Appalachians and Piedmont. A weak boundary will exist from the northern Gulf of Mexico across northern FL and along the coastal Carolinas and GA, where 70s F dewpoints will reside. However, very dry midlevel air will exist over the same areas. ...Southeast... Thunderstorm chances look to be maximized over FL today, where vertical profiles will be moist. MUCAPE averaging near 1500 J/kg appears likely over much of the FL Peninsula with the aid of heating. However, lift will be weak and unfocused. Still, the uncapped air mass should yield scattered thunderstorms during the day, possibly beginning early over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moving ashore. Forecast soundings show weak winds aloft/shear, and generally poor lapse rates with moist profiles. As such, only general thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Jewell/Barnes.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. General thunderstorms are most likely over the Florida Peninsula during the day. ...Synopsis... An upper low will fill as it moves slowly east across KY, with the overall cyclonic regime extending from the lower Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley. Southwesterly 500 mb winds of 40-60 kt will exist across the Southeast, with an upper ridge from the Four Corners states into the northern Plains. To the west, lowering heights will exist over the Pacific Northwest as a strong shortwave trough pushes into British Columbia, and a weak upper low affects parts of southern CA late. At the surface, weakening low pressure will exist beneath the aforementioned upper low over KY, with only upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints stretching across the Appalachians and Piedmont. A weak boundary will exist from the northern Gulf of Mexico across northern FL and along the coastal Carolinas and GA, where 70s F dewpoints will reside. However, very dry midlevel air will exist over the same areas. ...Southeast... Thunderstorm chances look to be maximized over FL today, where vertical profiles will be moist. MUCAPE averaging near 1500 J/kg appears likely over much of the FL Peninsula with the aid of heating. However, lift will be weak and unfocused. Still, the uncapped air mass should yield scattered thunderstorms during the day, possibly beginning early over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moving ashore. Forecast soundings show weak winds aloft/shear, and generally poor lapse rates with moist profiles. As such, only general thunderstorms are anticipated. ..Jewell/Barnes.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA...AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather potential is forecast to be minimal for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... The remnants of Helene will remain over the lower OH Valley through tonight, with dry air wrapping around across the Appalachians and into eastern KY/OH. Farther east, drying into eastern VA and vicinity will be more gradual as 850 mb winds veer. In the near term, an area of moisture, instability, and favorable low-level shear will affect much of eastern VA into the DelMarVa and into northeast NC. Storms coverage is expected to remain isolated through the evening, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any small, long-lived storms. Loss of heating as well as drying aloft should preclude any substantial increase in storm coverage. ..Jewell.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA...AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather potential is forecast to be minimal for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... The remnants of Helene will remain over the lower OH Valley through tonight, with dry air wrapping around across the Appalachians and into eastern KY/OH. Farther east, drying into eastern VA and vicinity will be more gradual as 850 mb winds veer. In the near term, an area of moisture, instability, and favorable low-level shear will affect much of eastern VA into the DelMarVa and into northeast NC. Storms coverage is expected to remain isolated through the evening, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any small, long-lived storms. Loss of heating as well as drying aloft should preclude any substantial increase in storm coverage. ..Jewell.. 09/28/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 27 23:30:14 UTC 2024.

MD 2127 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 2127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...Southern/central VA into extreme northern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 272159Z - 272330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat may persist into the evening. Some parts of Tornado Watch 688 have been extended in time to expire at 8 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...At 2155 UTC, two clusters of relatively low-topped convection with embedded rotating cells are ongoing from extreme northern NC into southern/central VA. One cluster is moving northward to the east of Roanoke, near the leading edge of a pronounced midlevel dry slot. The other cluster is moving across the Tidewater region of Virginia, within a persistent low-level warm-advection regime. Extensive cloudiness and poor lapse rates have limited destabilization, but rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg. Notable weakening of low-level flow has been observed from both the KFCX and KAKQ radars, but 0-1 km SRH remains in the 150 m2/s2 range, sufficient to support some tornado threat with any persistent low-topped supercells. Parts of WW 688 have been extended in time to 8 PM EDT in order to address the remaining threat. ..Dean.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 36717991 37047998 37678006 37897946 37777828 37727676 37567606 36827603 36417607 36117640 36087704 36697706 36627868 36527935 36567977 36717991 Read more

MD 2126 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 688... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 2126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of southern VA and northern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 688... Valid 271928Z - 272130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues. SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will remain possible for a couple more hours. An additional tornado watch beyond the 22Z expiration of WW 688 appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Tornado potential has become focused in two regions within WW 688, one near the northeast NC/southeast VA border area and a separate corridor near along the central VA/NC border. The lead convective band has considerably decayed over the past couple hours, but remnants of it continue to move northeast along the northeast NC/southeast VA border area. Surface temperatures and dew points are a couple degrees lower downstream, suggesting the threat will struggle to reintensify. But favorable low-level shear and still adequate tropical boundary-layer moisture suggest a conditional tornado threat remains evident. Farther west, multiple low-topped cells have rotated and produced at least one brief TDS thus far. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s within cloud breaks across central NC and this has compensated for the persistent reduction in low-level SRH per the FCX VWP. A brief tornado or two will remain possible with small discrete cells in this region for another couple hours. ..Grams.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36937599 36077590 35517682 35627713 36557731 36967770 37097854 36287914 36197962 36448000 37198000 37477964 37487927 37077731 37297671 36937599 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge late this weekend and into early next week across parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and central to northern Plains. A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in mid-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the eastern Pacific. This wave is expected to amplify slightly as it moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest by early Sunday and translates east into the northern CONUS through Monday. Winds will increase through this period across the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains as an attendant surface low deepens and migrates east in tandem with the upper trough. The combination of strengthening winds, antecedent dry conditions, and receptive fuels should support fire weather concerns. ...D3/Sunday - Northern Rockies and northern Plains... Medium to long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the deepening of a surface low across the northern Rockies and into the southern Canadian Prairies through the day Sunday. Limited moisture return into the region will limit any precipitation chances south of the Canadian border, but the tightening pressure gradient will bolster surface winds across the region. Latest ensemble guidance shows reasonably good agreement in 15-25 mph winds both ahead of and behind the surface trough. Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through Sunday afternoon, resulting in afternoon RH minimums between 15-25%. With ERCs across much of the region above the 90th percentile (especially across the northern Plains), elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Critical risk highlights will likely be needed across parts of the northern Plains in subsequent forecast updates as confidence increases that moisture return within the dry return flow regime will be sufficiently limited to allow RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. ...D4/Monday - central Plains... A strong cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas and NE through the day Monday as the surface cyclone pushes east across the Canadian Prairies. Although cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, diurnal warming should modulate temperature reductions and maintain afternoon highs in the 60s. Coupled with an influx of drier continental air, afternoon RH minimums in the 20-25% range appear probable. A strong wind signal is noted in most solutions suggesting that 20-25 mph post-frontal winds are likely with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph possible. ERCs should remain elevated through Monday afternoon, which will support fire weather concerns. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected, and critical conditions appear probable if current RH forecasts remain on track. ..Moore.. 09/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ECG TO 45 SE RZZ TO 25 SSE RIC TO 40 E RIC TO 35 SW NHK TO 40 NW AVC TO 10 SSE DAN TO 10 WNW DAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-139-143-272140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-067-083-093-095-143-175-181-183-199- 550-590-620-650-680-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-272140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE FRANKLIN HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY PITTSYLVANIA SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX YORK Read more