Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... By the middle of next week, upper-level flow across the CONUS is expected to become more zonal and the jet stream will be generally located along the Canadian border. The more pronounced troughs in the northern CONUS will help to push cooler drier air into much of the country. A modestly moist airmass will be limited to portions of the Southeast. Broadly stable conditions will limit severe thunderstorm potential at least through the end of the week. Model guidance shows some potential for flow aloft to amplify next weekend. This could encourage moisture return northward. However, the quality of this moisture as well as the timing of upper-level troughs is highly uncertain this far in advance. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not likely on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted and weakening upper trough will continue to linger in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday. Similar to previous days, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will still be present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward into the upper Great Lakes region. A relatively sharp cold front will be attendant to this upper-level system and bring cooler and much drier conditions into much of the Plains. A few thunderstorms are possible in association with the weakening trough in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Weak lapse rates aloft and overall nebulous forcing will continue to limit severe potential with any storms that do develop. Farther west, thunderstorms are much less likely as warm air at mid/upper levels will keep convection too shallow for charge separation. Heating of a moist airmass and lift from the sea breeze boundaries will promote thunderstorms in the Florida Peninsula. Much weaker flow aloft will greatly limit storm organization, however. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not likely on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted and weakening upper trough will continue to linger in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday. Similar to previous days, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will still be present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward into the upper Great Lakes region. A relatively sharp cold front will be attendant to this upper-level system and bring cooler and much drier conditions into much of the Plains. A few thunderstorms are possible in association with the weakening trough in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Weak lapse rates aloft and overall nebulous forcing will continue to limit severe potential with any storms that do develop. Farther west, thunderstorms are much less likely as warm air at mid/upper levels will keep convection too shallow for charge separation. Heating of a moist airmass and lift from the sea breeze boundaries will promote thunderstorms in the Florida Peninsula. Much weaker flow aloft will greatly limit storm organization, however. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not likely on Monday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted and weakening upper trough will continue to linger in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday. Similar to previous days, a belt of stronger mid-level winds will still be present from eastern Georgia into the eastern Carolinas. The surface pattern in the East will remain quite diffuse. A stronger upper-level trough will move eastward into the upper Great Lakes region. A relatively sharp cold front will be attendant to this upper-level system and bring cooler and much drier conditions into much of the Plains. A few thunderstorms are possible in association with the weakening trough in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Weak lapse rates aloft and overall nebulous forcing will continue to limit severe potential with any storms that do develop. Farther west, thunderstorms are much less likely as warm air at mid/upper levels will keep convection too shallow for charge separation. Heating of a moist airmass and lift from the sea breeze boundaries will promote thunderstorms in the Florida Peninsula. Much weaker flow aloft will greatly limit storm organization, however. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid to upper-level trough and accompanying jet streak are expected to traverse the western Canadian provinces Sunday. At the surface, a low will deepen across the northern Rockies and tightening pressure gradients will develop from the northern Plains, into the Intermountain West, and Cascades. The result will be increasing surface winds within these areas. A dry return-flow regime over the northern Plains will unfold, where high confidence in the latest guidance suggests speeds around 15-25 mph by the afternoon. Persistent low moisture content of fine to medium fuels across this region, ERCs exceeding 95th percentiles, and RH in the low teens warrants a narrow Critical area from the NE Panhandle through west-central SD. Further west of this region, southwest to westerly winds of slightly lower speeds will impact central WY, southern MT, and portions of ID. Two other Elevated areas have also been included for the Great Basin and Columbia River Basin of WA. Fuels across the former region continue to become more receptive to fire spread due to persistent warm and dry conditions, but only transient elevated to critical south-southwest winds are anticipated. Dry, westerly downslope surface flow near 15 mph coinciding with RH in the upper teens preceding the trough will impact eastern WA. If later guidance suggest a deeper and/or slower trough progression, this Elevated area may need to be expanded. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest, while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline. Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest, while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline. Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest, while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline. Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ..Barnes.. 09/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more